ESPN FPI projected results ahead of Louisville at NC State
Summary
Pick/market: Louisville (2-2, 1-1) dropped its first ACC game of the season, falling at home to Wake Forest, 30-27.
Louisville (2-2, 1-1) dropped its first ACC game of the season, falling at home to Wake Forest, 30-27. The loss results in the program slipping in the latest ESPN Football Power Index and having a few future projections flip in favor of the opponent.
Up next is Louisville's first ACC road game of the season. The Cardinals will visit NC State on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. The Wolfpack (2-2, 0-1) are coming off a home win over Appalachian State. NC State dropped its league opener at Virginia, 34-8, in Week 1.
The ESPN Football Power Index has updated following the latest weekend of football and Louisville dropped eight spots to No. 31, while NC State sits at 58. The FPI Matchup Predictor indicates a Louisville victory, giving the Cardinals a 67.2% chance of winning.
The updated projections for the remaining schedule favor Louisville until the final two games, which flipped to give Pittsburgh and Kentucky the slight percentage edge.
The ESPN FPI top five has Georgia at the top, edging out Notre Dame, followed by Ohio State, Texas and Miami. Georgia has the highest percentage (15.8%) of winning the national championship.
The ESPN FPI has Miami at the top of the ACC, followed by Pittsburgh, Virginia, Duke and Louisville.
ESPN states that its Football Power Index "is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."
Continue scrolling for all game-by-game projections.
Louisville's remaining strength of schedule is No. 64, per the FPI, which gives the team an 87.7% chance of winning at least six games.
OVERALL FPI METRICS
FPI Score: 10.8
FPI Rank: 31 (-8)
Projected W-L: 7.3-4.8
Chances of Winning Out: 3.3%
Chances of Winning Six Games: 87.7%
Chances of Winning Conference: 3.1%
Chances of Reaching Playoff: 3.5%
Chances of Making Nat'l Championship: 0.1%
Chances of Winning Nat'l Championship: 0.0%
Here's the game-by-game look:
Sept. 6 vs Ole Miss (Nashville, Tenn.)
ESPN FPI Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
Predictor: 69.1%
Opponent FPI Rank: 14
Opponent W/L Projection: 7-5
OUTCOME: Ole Miss win, 41-38, on last-second field goal
Louisville is now 0-2 all-time vs Ole Miss.
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