Monday musings: The defense got better, the offense struggled and the schedule ahead is brutal
Summary
Pick/market: Here are some reflections on offense, defense and the schedule as Vanderbilt prepares for a road trip to Georgia.
Here are some reflections on offense, defense and the schedule as Vanderbilt prepares for a road trip to Georgia.
The defense played its most complete game of the season.
Auburn's offense has issues, but it also came in averaging 457 yards and 6.1 yards per play. Vanderbilt held the Tigers to season-lows with 279 yards and 4.8 yards per play on Saturday. Outside of two long touchdown drives, the defense just didn't allow much, with the Tigers having three, three-and-out drives and another four-play drive that resulted in a punt.
Vanderbilt also forced a turnover inside the Auburn 30 that led to points.
Freshman star/safety Mason Lewis has begun to emerge.
Lewis was just a guy out there in fall camp who spent most of August running second team behind Carson Lawrence, and didn't really stand out in terms of making splash plays.
But Lewis has emerged as the starter there and on Saturday, finished fourth on the team with five total tackles (two solo) and a team-leading two pass break-ups, including the one that ended up as a Miles Capers interception. Of course, last week, it was Lewis who assisted in the sack of NC State quarterback CJ Bailey, which Capers recovered for the winning score.
Per PFF, Lewis ranks 11th on the team with 136 snaps and has the defense's second-best overall grade (81.3) of guys with at least 20 snaps.
Another safety is the team's best defender, per PFF.
If you guessed the highest-graded defender to be CJ Heard, then you were right; Heard's 209 snaps ranks third on the team and his 86.7 grade is the team's best.
That, surprisingly, makes Ricardo Jones the team's third-best safety (76.8). Jones ranks fourth with 195 snaps.
However, four games in, and the same questions about identity and the ability to put together a complete game remain.
One of the biggest shocks so far has been Vanderbilt's mediocre special-teams play. Tyler Ebel got another punt blocked and scooped up for a score on Saturday, marking the second time that's happened. Brock Taylor was 3 of 4 on field goals and the one miss, Auburn got a hand on. Punt returner Martel Hight was a non-factor on Saturday, as he didn't have a return attempt.
For the effort Vanderbilt puts into special teams—that includes having some starters play on coverage units and such—there's no reason for the failures to continue.
The offense wasn't good, either, averaging 4.1 yards per play. That's a little more understandable at face value—Auburn's defense has talent and Jared Curtis was making his first road start—but the problem is that it looked a lot more like Clark Lea's first Vanderbilt offenses pre-Jerry Kill and Tim Beck that couldn't' walk and chew gum at the same time. The offensive line still picks up frequent penalties and can't move anyone out of the way with consistency and meanwhile, Auburn had four first-half sacks.
That's led to an offense that's almost completely dependent on Curtis to make plays. Curtis's inexperience certainly costs the team at times but he could also use a lot more help from teammates, too.
The inability to develop another receiver outside Junior Sherrill is hard to excuse and might also reflect other problems.
Sherrill's drops through the first two games were notable but the senior has picked it up, becoming (as expected) far and away the team's biggest threat since.
From there, it's hard to find much good to say.
Tristen Brown looked like an answer against NC State; he had one catch for seven yards on Saturday.
Ja'Cory Thomas had season-highs in catches (3) and yards (18). That brings his season totals to four catches and 35 yards, totals that should look more like a half's worth of work from the guy who was expected to be one of the team's most impactful transfers. It would help if Thomas saw the field more as he's accumulated just 62 snaps and it might also help if he were targeted more and deeper down the field given the play-making ability he showed at Ole Dominion and also in flashes during the fall and the spring.
Cole Adams was the team's second-best receiver in the spring, from the practices I attended (about half). He had some rapport with Curtis then between the hashes and it's hard to explain, now that he's apparently healthy, how the Commodores haven't used him more.
And maybe it's worth repeating that Brycen Coleman was good in fall and spring camps and has shown the ability to be a downfield threat, but again, there's not much to show for it (three catches for 31 yards).
And now that Cole Spence is back, the tight end reps will probably cut more into the receiver room given the line's problems with blocking as it looks more and more like the team should go to two tight ends (or two tight ends and fullback Gabe Fisher).
It begs questions as to what Vanderbilt did in the portal. The tight end/fullback-heavy approach is more justifiable if you're planning to be run-heavy, but less so if you're building an offense around Curtis. To boot, the offensive line has been nowhere near what Vanderbilt thought it had. Now, the team can't run the ball with any sustained consistency and effectiveness from the tailback position and having to use tight ends to block takes away from opportunities downfield.
Ideally, Thomas would be a take-the-top-off-the-defense threat to make things easier for Curtis, and Adams would be a catch-it-between-the-hashes guy good for 4-6 catches a game, giving an offense some much-needed things it doesn't have.
Instead, the offense is doing none of that and for two plays, reverted to having Blaze Berlowitz on the field for two plays as a receiver, presumably planting some kind of seed that he has to be accounted as a passer for if he lines up there and catches a lateral. Maybe that's helpful at some point, but if Vanderbilt's going the route of throwing the ball, isn't it best to do it with its best arm and perhaps target the two transfers who seem to have the biggest upsides?
It only gets tougher from here.
The model I've put together (which uses six mainstream sources) shows Vanderbilt as having the country's hardest schedule from here on. Next up is Georgia (29 points above average) which the model has as the best team in the country and the Commodores get that one on the road, to boot.
Vanderbilt's nine opponents are a combined 133 points above average, adjusting for home-field advantage. That's an average of 16.6 points above average, which is the equivalent of playing Texas Tech (the No. 14 teams in those power rankings) eight games on a neutral field.
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