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247Sports · fencejumpers

2d ago
2nd Half Coaching Strategies - Confirmation bias alive and well?
Summary
Pick/market: I pulled this comment from @Slugrat from another thread that I thought was interesting to follow up on as I'm getting really tired of hearing the term "turtling".
I pulled this comment from @Slugrat from another thread that I thought was interesting to follow up on as I'm getting really tired of hearing the term "turtling". First, it is such a generalization and can be so easily become a narrative that leads to confirmation bias. I think that is at play in the Washington game and comparing the halfs of football. "(I'd also maybe argue against the idea that our 2nd half on Saturday was any more conservative than the 1st. We just were more successful against a great defense in the 1st half. I didn't really see anything too conservative from us)" - Slugrat (or Michael Scott). I reviewed the play drives and comarison of the run/pass mix from the two halfs: First half saw a mix of 16 runs and 16 pass attempt plays. Second half saw a mix of 15 runs and 14 pass plays. Essentially identical mix and that includes the last 2 drives. The last 2 drives was the time where we were definitely (and correctly) trying to bleed the clock up two scores with under 5 minutes to play. There were six plays and six runs which ended up giving Washington their last gasp with one play from essentially their endzone. When you take out those last 2 drives (where we truthfully were bleeding the clock), it was a mix of 10 runs and 16 passes. While it seemed like our offense was more opened up in the first half, by my count we actually took 3 longer shots (over 20 yards) at passes in the 2nd half and none in the first half. It may have seemed like that as we found ourselves 3 times early between the 9 and 15 yard line of Washington and took endzone shots which makes sense. Every one of our first 4 drives in the 2nd half were impacted by untimely penalties. Our 4th drive was the interception. There is no question that Washington adjusted and was overplaying the run a bit in the 2nd half, but we still had some success but for those penalties. As Derek Burns indicated on the podcast, while the Gophers could have opened the offense up more in response, that came with certain risks. Washington was living and dying with creating turnovers with that D. But for a couple almost miraculous offensive plays, a missed OPI, and two untimely penalties giving them an extra 30 yards, the end result would not have been as close. It wasn't like the offense was tossing the ball around all over in the first half with open receivers. There was just some nice throws and catches with decent coverage. In my opinion, Fleck and his staff coached that 2nd half similar to what 90% of coaches would have done under similar circumstances and the narratives should be quieted.

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Teams: Minnesota

cfb_footballdefensementions_washingtonoffenseprediction