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247Sports · curtismyran27

1d ago
PJ the Turtle: What Shiv's data overlooked
Summary
Pick/market: @Shiv0014 did great work putting that data together, kudos.
@Shiv0014 did great work putting that data together, kudos. But it got me thinking on situations and games not included in the parameters of his data. 2024 UNC: Gophers lead 14-7 at half and 14-13 going into the 4th. I wouldn't say this loss is on PJ for being too conservative. We had one drive in the entire 3rd quater that went incomplete, 1 yard run, incomplete. UNC has two nice FG drives in the 3rd and we open the second half with two 3 and outs for -1 yards. Third posession is a fumble and the fourth is a go ahead FG drive. They take back the lead and we miss the game winning FG. If you're going to play Tressle ball you're going to be in situations like this and we had a chance to win the game with the reigning B1G kicker of the year. He misses and we are 0-1. Lost a 4th quarter lead but hard to blame that on PJ being too safe, more so we didn't stop them and did not execute on special teams. One drive of note is a missed FG in the first quarter from 27 yards - the play call on 3rd and goal from the 10 is a run that gets a yard. This is PJ playing it safe because he knows he's getting a FG (which is fair thinking from a kicker who was amazing the prior year, but a run from the 10 on 3rd and goal is explicitly the issue we have with PJ playing things too safe. I would be willing to bet he told the OC to run the ball there, but we aren't privy to that knowledge) But that drive from goal to go is a Brosmer incomplete, run for -1. run for 1, missed FG. Simply brutal looking back. 2024 Rutgers: Gophers lead 16-14 going into the 4th. Gophers open the 2nd half down 14-9 and have a beautiful drive that ends with a TD to take the lead. Next drive we get a first down from a defensive holding, then go incomplete, run for -2, incomplete, punt. We force a punt, get the ball back on our 28. Brosmer hits Geers for a nice pass to move the ball to the 46. We attempt three passes, gain 5 yards and punt from our 49. PJ playing field position and getting exactly what he wants. Great punt downed at the 6. We get the ball back and get sacked, incomplete, incomplete and give it right back. They move the ball a bit, punt it back to us, Geers fumbles and they take the lead. Another close game that we lose because we don't execute well enough. Darius was hurt, Geers fumbles, but again if you're going to play this way you open yourself up to losses if you make a big mistake. That game script is going the way PJ wants it to, we are stopping them and controlling field position. We just lose a fumble, defense can't hold to 3 and we lose. 2021 Bowling Green: Gophers lead 10-7 late in the 3rd. Tanner Morgan goes 5/13 with two picks, we lose to a bad MAC team. This was outside the parameters of his data, but to me this is epitome of how Tressle ball can haunt you against teams you are better than. Up 10-7 in the third we have the ball on BG's 34 with a 3rd and 6. We run the ball for a loss of 1, miss a 52 yard FG. They score on the next drive and we never lead again. This offensive gameplan was brutal, as was Morgan's QB play. A lot of times it's not just PJ being too conservative that leads to losses, it's that when you are in close games you have to execute perfectly, because you have less room for error in close games. As the data on his post shows it will keep you in games and help protect leads at least as well as other schools, but it will also bite you when you don't execute well enough.

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Teams: Minnesota

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