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247Sports · codyjgoodwin

2d ago
Emptying The Notebook: Mizzou’s path forward just got a lot harder a lot faster
Summary
Pick/market: Welcome to Emptying The Notebook, where you'll find everything and anything I find interesting in a given week.
Welcome to Emptying The Notebook, where you'll find everything and anything I find interesting in a given week. Today, some final thoughts, notes, and observations on the Missouri football team's 31-24 road loss to Mississippi State in Week 4. ONE BIG THING When broadcast teams welcome you in for a new football game, they usually set the scene. They talk about the teams and their seasons, discuss key players and their accomplishments, explain important strengths and weaknesses, all that good stuff. The SEC Network team for Saturday's Missouri-Mississippi State game in Starkville was Matt Schumacker on play-by-play, Aaron Murray as the in-game analyst, and Taylor Davis on the sideline. During their scene-setting intro, Schumacker and Murray explored why this particular game, even in late September, had such big stakes, "It just feels like a big game," Schumacker said, stressing the word feels. "I know it's only Week 4. Both teams are 3-0. Why is it so important for these two teams?" Murray explained that Missouri-Mississippi State was the fourth ranked matchup of the day in the SEC, and that you want to get off to a good start by finishing September undefeated … and then came the money line. "You don't want to fall behind," Murray said. "Both of these teams are trying to move up and match the powers in this conference, so it's a big night to make a statement for both of these teams." You don't want to fall behind. Bingo. That's probably why a lot of Mizzou fans were mad after Saturday night's 31-24 loss to State. The Tigers did not get through September undefeated, sitting now at 3-1 overall and 0-1 in SEC play. The road to the top of the SEC and the College Football Playoff just got a lot tougher a lot faster. The margin-for-error, if there ever was one, is gone. Let's think big picture for a moment. Missouri began 2026 with one of college football's hardest schedules. Four weeks in, not much has changed. ESPN's FPI says Mizzou has the nation's third-toughest remaining schedule, but we're looking at the schedule a little differently now. We didn't expect State to be 4-0 with one of the nation's best offenses led by one of the sport's top young quarterbacks. We didn't expect Texas A&M or Oklahoma, both playoff teams last year, to both be 2-2 with major issues, especially at quarterback. We didn't expect Florida to look this good this fast under first-year coach Jon Sumrall, but here come the Gators, ranked No. 8 with one of the country's best offenses — they just hung 498 yards and 52 points on Ole Miss. Mizzou hosts them Saturday afternoon. You can swap State and Florida for A&M and OU in terms of dynamic opponents on the schedule and the only change is that some of the season's big tests came in late September and early October rather than mid-October and in the regular-season finale. Oh, and did we mention that No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Georgia are also on the schedule? But if you do all that, Saturday night's game becomes even more frustrating, right? Mizzou stopped State's offense early, then failed on a 4th-and-3 at State's 36-yard line. They led 24-17 with the ball in the fourth quarter, a chance at a two-score lead, but couldn't overcome a penalty. They had two shots for a first down, and probably points, from State's 11-yard line, but couldn't do it. They threw a Hail Mary. It went unanswered. The flags. The missed tackles. The lack of execution. The questionable play calls. The Tigers had so many opportunities to win that game — to finish September unbeaten, to move closer toward those SEC powers, to make a statement, to take a step forward rather than fall behind. Instead, State took that step. That probably adds to the irritation, if you're being honest about it. Nothing against State, but that's a program that had gone 2-22 in its last 24 SEC games. Now they're 2-0 in SEC play, and 4-0 overall. Now they're ranked No. 16 in the country. Now they're a good team with a very good quarterback, an excellent running back, a speedy receiving corps, and a defense that's getting better. Now they're ascending. And now Mizzou is stuck looking up. These Tigers have goals of contending for the SEC crown and reaching the College Football Playoff. Those goals are still out there. There's a lot of ball left, but the path there just got a whole lot harder given who the Tigers still have to play. There's a world where State is one of the league's top teams this season. Let's not rule that out. Maybe Missouri benefits from having seen them early and goes on a run this month. After Florida, it's A&M, who's limping right now. Then Ole Miss, in Oxford, but they just got their bell rung by the Gators. Then Arkansas, and what a mess that is. A strong showing this month keeps the possibility of meaningful November football on the table. That's both the optimistic take and the reality of the situation, but the latter must also include important context, which is that these Tigers still have a lot of work to do — the penalties, the execution, and please, for crying out loud, please wrap up. There's still time to figure this out, to grab a signature win that'll propel them forward. What's that phrase we say? Live moves fast in college football. With Saturday's result, Mizzou has fallen behind, and it's going to take some serious work to catch back up. Missouri fell to 3-1 overall and 0-1 in SEC play after a 31-24 loss to Mississippi State in Starkville last Saturday. (Photo: Getty) THE LITTLE THINGS 1. We must start with Brunno Reus's punt in the second quarter. He kicks it from the opposite 45-yard line and drops it inside the other 5-yard line with ease. Trajen Greco ran down the field to cover it at the 2-yard line. Excellent play all around. 2. The decision to punt was a curious one. Mizzou had reached State's 43-yard line. Austin Simmons' third-down throw was tipped at the line and went incomplete. The Tigers were already down 14-0. I thought they'd go for it. Instead, head coach Eli Drinkwitz trusted his special teams and defense. It ultimately paid off. Reus pinned State on the 2, the defense forced a three-and-out, and the Tigers scored on their next possession. Kudos. 3. After the field goal, Greco picked off Kamario Taylor on a pass that went high because of Santana Banner. Taylor pulled the ball to throw to Anthony Evans III. Banner read the play and stayed back in the passing lane. Because Banner's 6-foot-3 and can jump insanely high, Taylor had to quickly throw high to get the ball to Evans. He sailed it. Greco read it and adjusted for the pick. Four plays later, Mizzou scored for 14-10. 4. The first touchdown to Cayden Lee was a good play call with excellent execution. Jamal Roberts was the decoy both pre- and post-snap. Lee waited patiently for the offensive line to create the wall, then he caught the pass and did the rest. That spin move to evade the State defender looked legitimately like a video game. 5. Lee's second touchdown was also brilliant. Mizzou had a stacked alignment on the far right, with Naeshaun Montgomery on the line and Lee lined up behind. Montgomery purposefully hesitated to create some traffic, then cut inside. That allowed Lee to gain a step and sprint outside. Simmons delivered a beautiful pass for the touchdown. 6. With Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen both injured, we got to see quite a bit of Jaden Jones, the Florida State transfer. He played 39 snaps, far and away a season high. He recorded one tackle, but also blew up this first-down play in the third quarter that resulted in a tackle for loss. Jones beat his guy inside, then Robert Woodyard Jr. and Marquis Gracial came in to finish. Good stuff. 7. We also saw some Demarcus Johnson. He played 15 snaps and flashed on a couple plays. On a 1st-and-10 in the third quarter, he blew through State's offensive tackle and rushed a throw from Taylor that went incomplete. 8. Later on that same drive, Johnson got a free rush on Taylor and forced him on the run to his right. The play went down as a 3-yard completion, but Johnson disrupted State's rhythm, even if only a little. 9. Next play, Jason Dowell split the tackle and guard and wrapped up Taylor on third down. Banner piled on to help finish. Those two plays, back-to-back, held State to a field goal for 17-17. Really good sequence. ALL OF THE INSANE THROWS QB1 MADE THIS WEEK 1. Simmons' first completion of the game was a zip to Shaun Terry II for 11 yards and a first down. He put the ball between defenders and also out of harms way while still allowing Terry to make the catch. Good stuff. 2. Two plays later, Simmons threw to Donovan Olugbode for a 21-yard catch and run. He spotted the window before Olugbode ran through it and delivered a perfect ball, then Olugbode charged upfield. Great play. 3. Early second quarter, on a 1st-and-10, Simmons hit Olugbode again for 16 yards. He rolled left, and it looked like a State defender might make a play on it, but Simmons put just enough on the throw to get it over the defender and to Olugbode, who made a nice catch at the sideline. 4. This play to Roberts was great. Play-action fake. Roberts immediately took off from the backfield down the right side. Simmons rolled left, then turned back and delivered an excellent ball to Roberts down the sideline. Gain of 21. 5. Three plays later, Simmons threw a missile between four State defenders and pinned the ball on Olugbode for a 9-yard touchdown. This one looked like it had a ton of heat on it. 6. Third quarter, Cayden Lee ran a crosser and Simmons hit him in stride for a gain of 23. Actually thought the defender had decent coverage, but Lee was a half-step ahead and Simmons threw a beauty. 7. Finally: on a 1st-and-10 in the fourth quarter, Simmons took the snap, looked right, came back to midfield and dropped the ball between a trio of State defenders right to Lee, in stride, for a 37-yard gain. Incredible. I wanted to include some of Simmons' bad throws, because he had a few, but upon review, most of the bad throws were actually just good plays by State's defense. The Bulldogs finished with 15 pass breakups, which felt like a lot, but the Rewatch confirmed that they contested virtually everything. D-HOP DID MORE THAN JUST SACK THE QB Maybe you've heard: Daeden Hopkins played an outstanding game on Saturday — that he recorded 3.5 sacks, second most in a single game in Mizzou history, and has proven to be one of the SEC's top EDGE rushers just one month into the season. But he did so much more than just sack the quarterback on Saturday. – After his first quarter sack to force 3rd-and-13, Hopkins spun past State's left tackle and drew a holding flag. Kamario Taylor's pass to his tight end fell incomplete, so Missouri declined the penalty, but it could've been 3rd-and-23 or longer if not. – State had 3rd-and-9 on its own 3-yard line after Reus's punt. Hopkins was both blocked and chipped on the play, but stayed in Taylor's throwing lane, forcing a high throw that went incomplete and resulted in a punt. – On a 3rd-and-7 in the second quarter, Hopkins drew both the right tackle and a chip, leaving his four teammates all with one-on-one matchups. They all won and recorded a sack. Holding on Jahlil Florence nixed this play, but it was still a good rep. – On a 1st-and-10 in the third quarter, Taylor threw a swing pass to Anthony Evans III. Hopkins' pressure on the edge again forced a high throw. Evans caught the pass but was dropped for a 5-yard loss, setting up 2nd-and-15 and eventually leading to a punt. POWERMIZZOU's (Mostly Real) WEEKLY AWARDS Most Valuable Player (of the Week): EDGE Daeden Hopkins. Do you really need any more evidence? Offensive Player of the Year (of the Week): WR Cayden Lee. Went for 11 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns, all single-game career highs. He came to Mizzou with WR1 potential and revealed himself to be just that in this game. He's up to 27 catches for 412 yards and four touchdowns through four games this season. Defensive Player of the Year (of the Week): EDGE Daeden Hopkins. I don't normally like to give two awards to one guy, but, you know, recording 3.5 sacks and all the other stuff he did kind of forced my hand here. Special Teams Player of the Year (of the Week): RET DaMarion Fowlkes. Dude had two monster returns on kickoffs: a 54-yarder to begin the second half that led to Mizzou's go-ahead score, then a 33-yard return in the fourth to give Mizzou excellent field position for a drive that ended on those two plays at State's 11-yard line. Don't look now, but Fowlkes is, quietly, now No. 9 nationally in kickoff return average, at 28.8 yards per return. The 'This Guy Should Probably Play More' Award: CB Jahlil Florence. Most of Mizzou's secondary struggled against State's speedy receivers. Not Florence. He was targeted four times in coverage and allowed no catches with three pass breakups. He broke up the pass on the fourth-down play that shouldn't have happened because the clocks were at all zeroes before the snap at the end of the first half. The snap counts suggest Florence is CB3 behind Chris Graves Jr. and Sione Laulea, but he's been very good, allowing just two catches on 13 targets in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. He should play more. The 'This Guy Is Probably In Ridiculous Shape' Award: WR Naeshaun Montgomery. Some fun stats regarding the Florida transfer: He's played 205 total snaps, the most of any Mizzou receiver through four games. He has been on the field for 102 passing snaps. He has been targeted just 12 times, resulting in five catches for 66 yards. Most of Mizzou's targets in the passing game have gone to Cayden Lee (34) and Donovan Olugbode (30), which means our guy Montgomery has been, mostly, out here running wind sprints and run-blocking. His cardio has to be fantastic. He had five targets against State, resulting in one catch for seven yards. Maybe that means more opportunities are coming. The Tigers probably need one more reliable receiving threat to really tie the pass game together. We'll see if the production comes. I'm hopeful. Cody Goodwin covers the Missouri Tigers for PowerMizzou and 247Sports. Follow him on Twitter/X at @codygoodwin.

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Teams: Missouri

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