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Podcast: Cover 3 College Football Episode: Mailbag! Spring Games At Nebraska & Clemson, Bill Belichick & Lane Kiffin Preview 2026 & more! Transcript: This is the Cover 3 Tailgate. And welcome BACK TO THE COVER 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli, that's Danny Kanell, I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live at youtube.com/cover3 and everywhere you get your podcast on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like, and come and join us in the chat aka the Cover 3 Tailgate where Brad and Dirty Dogs and Coach K and Thomas and Dash and Trig and Zach have already gotten the conversation started. That's right, it is a Thursday. It is a mailbag episode. We've got a couple questions from the big old bag of mail where listeners have gone to leave us a five-star review and in that review put your mailbag question. But I want to get started with what we finished the show with because at 7:36 a.m. Eastern time, Brad jumped into the tailgate and got the conversation going with the question, Tom, was there a breakfast ball yesterday on hole one? Yes. Yes, there was. There was Yeah, no, there was a I mean, you know, I didn't I don't go to the range during the winter. I don't do any of that stuff. I didn't go to the range before I teed off. I just walked right to the first tee and my first swing in five months was that first swing and I as I texted you boys, I hooked that thing a good 50 yards to the So yeah, breakfast ball for sure. That's you love to see that hook though. It means you're back. >> That was great. It was great. I loved watching it, but I was like, yeah, but I'm not going to play that one. Is it OB left or like we we we we just hacking out of some No, it's not OB, but there's about 50 trees. Like the very the first the first hole at my course is very tree lined, so you do not want to miss the fairway or else you're in hell. So yeah. See, like our course is just like it's very OB target golf. So it's just like first first couple rounds back, like we don't really have a winter season, but like after football season when you actually start playing again, it's like, oh god. This is this is rough. Bring a box. Mhm. Yeah, yeah, just a lot of dropping. Yeah, a lot of a lot of dropping where you where you All right, I'm going to go ahead and go with the fairway. Screw this. >> [laughter] >> Um all right, this is another one from Thomas. Uh a little before we dive into some of the more college football centric stuff, Thomas says, Happy opening day. Just going off the records, why are the Giants the worst team in Major League Baseball? Uh yeah, the Yankees win 7-0 in last night's game. Today uh we'll get everybody up and going. Our our our foremost Giants fan here on the show. Tom, there was also some questions about your fandom. I don't know if you want to shed uh you know, the cathartic experience that you did to free yourself from the shackles of your previous team and find the warm embrace of the San Francisco Giants even in the wake of a loss. Um you know, how's uh how's everything going as we as as we sort of pull ourselves out of that wild What was it? Second inning that got sideways? Yeah. Um very simple story. Uh in 2023, I decided I was done with Jerry Reinsdorf. So instead of watching the White Sox that year, I kind of I was I watched the Phillies, the Mets, and I'd always watch the Giants like just like late night games cuz they were always West Coast, love their broadcast. And the point of doing it was I was trying to find a new team cuz I was done with the White Sox, I was done with Jerry Reinsdorf. Just ended up going with the Giants cuz I was familiar with them, loved the broadcast. But like I also I have not watched a Bulls game in three years either. It's just I didn't adopt a new NBA team cuz I don't care that much about the NBA. Like the Bulls were my only connection to the NBA, whereas baseball was my favorite sport growing up. So I did not want to go away. Like Jerry Reinsdorf was making me hate baseball. So in order to save my relationship with the sport, I ditched the White Sox and the Giants were a natural choice. Danny, [snorts] you going to take in any baseball today? I mean, solid sports day. You throw in the Houston Open opening round, finish it with Tom's Illini against Houston and best game of the night as the nightcap. How How we feeling here on this Thursday? Oh, phenomenal. Uh it's going to be great. I did uh I was a little uh taken aback by Barry Bonds saying he was almost a Yankee until he hung up the phone on George Steinbrenner when he gave him a deadline, which I yeah, it was a great story from Barry Bonds. And James Winston on the coverage with Netflix, former sports star at Florida State. It's pretty good. >> That's true, by the way, the Bonds story, apparently. Um the other one is like the Maddux was was also almost a Yankee. And they didn't respond to him in time. Mhm. That sounds like a Steinbrenner >> have been unfair. Like there's 98 Yankees teams with Maddux. Right. Oh my gosh. It would have been insane. I mean, a big weekend, too. Seagate Club Championship. I'm on to the and the crown. Elite Eight. So because it's all matches, right? Yeah. Match play. We had 16 qualified, won my first round. We got three more to go. I'm going to give you give you that. So speaking of match play, I'll go ahead, Danny. Sorry. Depends on when it is in the match and it depends on the opponent. Usually early in the match, we're pretty friendly, you know, you give a three-footer, two and a half footer. But boy, but watch out on that back nine. You're putting a two-footer, I got to see that baby in the hole. >> [laughter] >> I I like it. Um that's so match play tournament is actually probably the number one driver for us um creating handicap committee at our club. Because one of our one of our guys was a two. He was one under through 14 and got closed out. Oof. My goodness. >> I was like, uh Okay. >> Man. So who's out there as like a 15, but it's really a a five? It's [laughter] it's actually been cleaned up. Like it's not that hard if you just rip all the scores from Golf Genius and just run it through like a a little analysis. Um But when you told me about putting everybody's scores on a regression model, I imagined you with like a PowerPoint uh sitting there in the 19th hole trying to explain to all these men all this math. And I just, you know, I I you're just doing yeoman's work out there. It's not public. They they they they keep it anonymous. You just uh you get a little like re-education, you know? Um where they the pro will talk to you about the proper way to to use the Gin app and um maybe a certain number of guys have to turn their scorecards in in person, you know? Um but not many. Nothing more terrifying in like a handicap match like a match play with with a mid handicapper because they could they could actually play pretty well, but then they can also shoot like 120. So you never really know what you're going to get. I I talked to Gip about about the one crazy one. I like but again, like we try to keep it private, but it's epic. All right, let's uh let's >> the guys' tournament season were like for two years, we're in the trillions. >> [laughter] >> Uh well, best best of luck, Danny. Uh go out there and get it done. Throw a little distraction uh behind the green on the home hole. Say, you know, fi- figure out some way to be able to to throw them off their game. Uh all right, so this weekend we have spring games because while uh and for those of you who are wondering, yes, I am in Houston right now. We will be covering tonight's Sweet 16 and then Saturday's Elite Eight action from the South Regional. Uh both Iowa and Nebraska's here. Oh man, they're here. We you might have seen uh Bush Light has already promised even more crates and pallets to to be delivered to the city. Um but Nebraska back in Lincoln is going to have its spring game. We've got two uh notable power conference spring games coming up this weekend. So I want to turn your attention to that. The Nebraska one will be on television. You can watch it at noon Eastern, 11 local on Big Ten Network. And then What? Yes, Tom? I'm I'm definitely going to be watching it. Oh yeah, obviously. Live stream of Tom watching the spring game. Always something that we've been pitching to our bosses for years. Uh but Clemson the Clemson Tigers are going to have their spring game, but if you want to see Chris Vizzina, if you want to see this Clemson team, you got you got to drive to the upstate because because they are not going to have this one on television. You can have any like takeaways for that of what you will in terms of what that might say or not say about the product put on the field, but um what should fans be looking for? So in all seriousness, fans who want to tune tune in and watch Nebraska, what do you think are are some of the top things that we're going to be looking for from Matt Rhule's crew? I mean, quarterback, clearly. Like how good is Claria? Is he operating it cleanly? Um you know, pass rush for Nebraska, right? Like their their D-line took a major step back. Uh last year at after losing what? Hutzler and and Hutzler and who was the other guy? Like they lost like two studs off that 2014. And it was we were on this earlier. I was like, this is not uh this is not the same quality of player. And then last year like they they bet really hard on a high upside left tackle from Bama whose kids na- the guy's name escapes me. Um but they just missed, right? And if you got to go get a tackle in the portal or really any position in the portal, and you miss, um certain positions are are harder to to find, right? Like you you kind of needed one cuz you don't have one. And Pritchett, thanks like thank you, Chad. So, like is the offensive line going to fix now? Um Cuz I I don't think Rhule is a bad coach, you know? I know we said that like I don't know if you need to extend him to keep him away from Penn State, but um Yeah, quarterback and line of scrimmage, really. Yeah, I just want to see how different the offense looks. Are you going to have more like quarterback runs designed into the offense that we've typically seen in a lot of Holgorsen offenses? Not where it's not like, you know, an option kind of thing, but there's usually a bit more mobility involved with the quarterbacks as far as like even just with rollouts, which is not really something they were doing with Dylan Raiola. It was very easy to figure out what Nebraska was doing on every snap. And also, this is probably why I'm sure you'll be dialed in watching this. I don't know if you're going to see a lot of that in the spring game. You know, it's [clears throat] probably the opportunity to work on more of the passing concepts. You don't want to show stuff about what you're going to do potentially in the fall. So, I think it'll be pretty vanilla, but I'm just curious to see what Glandrea looks like. How he throws it. I mean, he went on a tour. Uh I mean, he he was everywhere. That guy That guy We don't We don't >> a lot of football, and he he's made some improvements. Like he's a lot better. >> [clears throat] >> You know, it it is definitely going to be uh something they're going to be excited about. For the Clemson side of things, if we've got uh members of the Cover 3 Tailgate who want to, you know, hit us up with uh I know 24/7 Sports will be all over it. Um you know, let's We We'll We'll come back with whatever we're able to gather, but um like I mentioned, you you got to you got to take yourself. Uh you don't have to go around the stadium on a bus. You can just walk in the regular gate, but you do have to get to the stadium if you're going to be able to watch that one. Last thing on Nebraska, remember in December they made a a defensive coordinator change that they got Rob uh Arlt from San Diego State, who honestly like kicked ass at San Diego State last year. He was a Broyles Award finalist. Like I I'm curious to see I doubt they're going to show a whole lot in that, but you know, I'll watch it just to see, you know, what they show. Uh anybody that that maybe you know, sometimes like listening to the spring game is almost better than watching because the announcers talk to the coaches, right? And it's pretty laid back, and the coaches will share a lot because there's not a game coming up the next week, so they're not really worried about, you know, future opponents picking these announcers' brains. And also, you know, it's just there's no there's no more spring portal. So, they might be a little more free and flowing with the information. So, I think you should listen to these announcers on spring games. Like don't watch them on mute. And you might pick up some stuff that the coaches might have told them in meetings. Fantastic advice because the preparation that those announcers have to do to get ready for the game means that they have poured over the depth chart. Honestly, and I'm not trying to say this in a mean way, more than the fans. You know, like at this moment right now, the the people that are going to be calling that Nebraska spring game are going to have a better handle of the personnel thanks to those conversations with Matt Rhule and the rest of the staff to get ready. Great call, bud. The For spring games, listening can be maybe even more informative than watching. Um Elsewhere, spring games will be coming up a little bit later, but spring practice is underway. We've gotten a chance to hear from a couple of programs, and and you'll some some quotes and some headlines that have um you know, worked their way up to the top. Over at North Carolina, on Tuesday, Bill Belichick had his press conference. We don't get a lot of Bill Belichick press conferences, so you're always curious, and number one hot topic is what should we expect with Bobby Petrino? And Danny, I need you to help me here cuz I have no idea how to take this. He said, "Well, it's probably going to be a little bit like it was with Josh." Meaning McDaniels. What does that mean? Like what does that even mean? I mean, you you don't have You You can't just We'll just put some some pixie dust out there and and recreate uh what you had at quarterback with Josh McDaniels, what you had at uh on offensive line with Josh McDaniels, some of the unique skill position players you had with Josh McDaniels. Is that a communication thing? What What that mean? I [laughter] don't know. I mean, I think they're both well-respected names offensively. Um you know, I think people respect what they do. But I don't know exactly what he means other than I trust him with the offense maybe the way he did with Josh McDaniels. Like there's a relationship. >> That's what I was wondering if it's a little hands-off. Yeah. Yeah. This is his the way it was with the Patriots. What What are y'all expecting out of North Carolina's offense, Tom, bud? I I really have no idea, which is why like Is that game televised? When they play it? >> The spring game? Yeah. We don't have it. I don't think it's been announced. I I really don't know. I I could be wrong about that. Lil Ludacris be there. No, that's [snorts] the 10:00 a.m. festival concert. Uh the the the little bits of viewing from the first practice, I I think I think Billy I saw Billy Edwards uh throwing with Myles O'Neal and Travis Burgess looking on. So, Travis Burgess is suited up, bud. You know, I know we you've got we've got our eyes on him, and yeah, he's he's out there, but it I'm I I was not there, so I can't speak to it, but the the way that it seems, I would guess Billy Edwards is going to be the steady hand, but there'll be plenty of competition, and and we'll see what ends up happening when the full room gets there in June because they don't even have all their new additions yet. I do wonder like if they will just kind of air it out more. Cuz you know, like with Belichick and the way that they were going about it last year, it felt like they were very much trying to be like an old-school kind of Patriots attack where I mean, not that they never threw, but just it was very more pro style. I do wonder with Bobby coming in if it's going to look more like a college offense. I'm saying Jordan Ship is going to be the the name you need to know. He's a wide receiver who had some flashes last year, and if you've got I think undoubtedly upgrades at both quarterback downfield passing and offensive coordinator, then those should be things that would help them be able to unlock the rest of that receiver room um than what they had. We also got spring practice going at LSU. Uh we spent Wednesday's episode talking about the expectations stemming from some of those win totals. Well, Lane Kiffin, he's jumping on the other side with uh you know, talking about how there's so much work to do. Tom, why are you shaking your head? What What How How do you like uh Lane as he's as he's pulling all the strings and manipulating the emotions of LSU fans? I mean, listen, he's smart. He's doing the right thing. I mean, he understands there's not a whole lot of runway at LSU. The you know, you coach don't win quick, they get rid of them fast down there. Even after they've won, they'll get rid of your ass if you go a couple seasons without getting them a title, but come on, man. Like Curt Cignetti got Indiana undefeated and won a national title in 2 years. You're coming to LSU with all that money they're throwing at you and all the money they're giving you to put together a roster, and you're going to tell the fans to temper their expectations after everything you just did to get there? Come on, man. >> [laughter] >> What did What did y'all What did y'all get pick up from Lane? I didn't watch it yet. Um Okay. I I just like offensive line, offensive line, offensive line. I know that system like mitigates some need for great offensive line play, but you did see a difference in that offense between '24 and '25 at Ole Miss. Like '24 offensive line struggled a pretty good bit, and '25 was was better. Like they got better, and that offense hummed. Um I mean, quarterback also played really well. Uh but it's not like I mean, they had a what, a first-round pick in Jaxson Dart? Or he went first round, didn't he? Mhm. Yeah, I mean, so like last year offensive line was a major issue. LSU hasn't run the ball effectively in in years. How much money do they have? Because like they're what, giving like 40 million apparently for football? And Will Wade, 15 million for basketball? Like my god. What What's happening to the children's hospitals of Louisiana right now? I mean, it is >> Well, I mean, hey, they Oil's a business in Louisiana, too, man. All right. Mhm. >> Yeah. You know? Great point. I was eating I was eavesdropping on a conversation here in uh Houston. Fascinating stuff. I started hearing words like reservoir. I started hearing words like energy plant. And I was like, take out the A. I I watched Lane, man. Let's listen in on this [laughter] one. You know, like we we we think about like what jobs will AI not take? Like underwater welder plays pretty well. You know? Uh maybe they'll have robotics or something like that, but Yeah. You know? That's That's if we really run out of content this offseason. What programs are are are best positioned to benefit from their their graduates not being, you know, eaten alive by AI as far as their job prospects? >> [laughter] >> I just What else do I do? Yeah. Yeah, well, Missouri and Northwestern top school out there cuz they're I love the governor's quote when Brian Kelly was let go, and he was firing Scott Woodward, and he's like, you know, we just gave out all this money. He's like, we're never making that mistake again. What have they done since then? Shoveling it out. Just giving [laughter] it away. >> Man. Oh. That's >> wild stuff. Uh yeah, LSU spring practice underway. To me, it sounded like the mixed messaging of a toxic relationship, which is right on brand for what you're going to get there, you know? It's like, yeah, we're going to be great. Oh, but maybe not too great. Yeah, you know, just you know, that hot and cold. I think I think it's a preview of what you're going to be getting um with the Lincoln experience. >> I saw I saw Lane Kiffin's son. Yeah. Oh, you saw him in person. I saw the video. You tell me what was it like in person? You know, like frame's not real big, but he's not tiny. He threw with They don't officially do this, but they're like they'll they'll name these different groups after famous quarterbacks. So, I think for this group it was the like the top group was the CJ Stroud group and then you have like kind of the B group and the C group among among your seniors who are trying to get expo you know, exposure. And then you have like your A group and B group of the underclassmen. So, he started in the in the other A group for the upperclassmen and was I thought he belonged. I mean I I I didn't think he was like top half of the A group, but you know, like seemed to know what he was doing. Um Also uh Luke Bryan's kid uh is out there Bo Bryan and he's apparently pretty good pitcher, too. So, got some talent for both. You guys can check out our YouTube channel maybe for for some uh short form content >> the hole-in-one at the Grove? Did you see he was out golfing with his kid at the Grove? I think he had a hole-in-one. He was fired up. I think he said 16-year-old, too. So, he must be a pretty good athlete. That's uh It could be, yeah. He's he's a 27 as well. So, Mhm. Knox Kiffin, right? Knox Kiffin is Lane's son, yeah. Yep. So, is he going to go to high school in Knox? >> [laughter] >> Is he going to high school in Baton Rouge then or is he going to stay in Oxford? I don't know. I I should know this. I'll I'll Gosh, I don't He can't stay in Oxford, can he? He can't. There's no way. That was also one of the early when they were touring schools. Do you remember that part of it? >> Yeah. Yeah, when they were touring schools, there was one like Baton Rouge high school football coach says it's a done deal. You know, like that like one of the many many ways that things start to leak out one way or the other. So, I think he is at LSU. >> at your school in Baton Rouge. Okay. Uh so, yeah, keep your eyes LSU North Carolina uh getting underway. They had those first press conferences. We'll continue to learn a little bit. Their spring games will be next month. But coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to you, the listeners and the viewers with questions from the big old bag of mail, questions from the tailgate, and more. Next. When you need your sports news all the time, we've got breaking news to bring to you. CBS Sports HQ hits every highlight from all the sports that matter to you. We're bringing you that breaking news right here on HQ. CBS Sports HQ, streaming free 24/7. Back here on the Cover 3 podcast, let's dive into some questions from the tailgate. This one comes from Dirty Dogs. What's the crew's thoughts on players like Jaylen Walker and Averill Reese starting at off-ball linebacker and transitioning to edge in the NFL? And will we see more of those kinds of players? At just a pro day, right? Is that what kind of what's got that up in the the conversation? I know Ohio State had their pro day at some point in the last week. I mean, it's uh Micah Parsons did it at Penn State. Chop Robinson did it at Penn State. They began as off-ball linebackers and then got moved to the edge as they grew as they got bigger, as they got stronger, as they got faster, as they developed. So, I I don't think it's I I don't know if it's a trend as much as it's where you've got a very talented player who might not be the size as a freshman to where you would want him on the edge going off, maybe keep him at linebacker and as he gets bigger, you just move him around. Like I I I think these I mean, look at the names. Arv Arvell Reese is probably going to be a top three pick. Jaylen Walker was a top pick. Micah Robin Micah Parsons was a top pick. Like these are just spectacular players. And then there's Harold Perkins who never got big enough. Yeah. I think with more three-man front being played in college, there's probably more like players like this that you have to decide on. Mhm. It's just more supply coming from college. Um I've been listening to a lot of these draft podcasts and like their thoughts like Styles goes ahead of Arvell Reese. And I man, I don't know. Like I could be wrong about this, but I never really thought Styles was a better player than Reese. Like maybe a better athlete, but I think I think sometimes the draft podcasts get a little too lost in the in the weeds of just cuz they only talk about one thing. So, it's like you got to start going around on your own opinions. It's like nothing against Styles, but Styles is a similar player. Started as a safety, moved to linebacker. I I think overall, you're kind of just seeing like defensive roles are becoming more hybrid because you're being asked to cover bigger guys who are getting faster. So, you need big fast guys to cover them in different ways than you have in the past. So, I I think it's just part of the evolution of the sport. Like the evolution of the player is causing the sport to change. Agreed. Let's keep it moving in the tailgate. This next one comes from Coach K. He says at some point, do we see salary cap or NIL numbers flatten? They have gone up every year, but feel at some point there are only so many donors and resources to grab from. Mhm. Line red line go up. I mean, that's >> [laughter] >> the business, right? I mean, you know, just Yeah. more more more. Like figure out ways to to get the numbers, but I don't Is is is I don't think it's a bubble. How about that? But is flattening possible? So, it will not continue to inflate at the percentage that it inflated this last year because that was essentially artificial inflation that was caused by people front-loading a lot of these deals before the House settlement took effect, right? Like we're probably close to 40% inflation uh 25 to 26. But I do think like in talking to schools, a lot of them are planning on like 15% a year. Mhm. Until when? I I don't know. Um But now, there are some factors here. Like you have several arbitration cases coming up against the CSC. So, if the CSC gets smacked, uh that's you could probably just throw that 15 number out the door. Um I think it's also worth asking like eventually, you know, like you you hear a lot of NCAA hey, these players don't want to be, you know, collectively bargained and employees. And I I think a lot of that is like they they kind of cherry-pick who they uh who they get to talk for them. You know, like um if you look at who they throw in front of Congress, it's usually not somebody making big-time money, right? It's usually a former player who didn't make any money or it's, you know, a player in a non-revenue sport and they they they they they they get her up there to talk about, you know, how like we I don't want to be an employee, all all this kind of stuff. Um At a certain point, if these guys start making like really really really big bigger money than they are now, how do you convince them to collectively bargain? Mhm. Cuz the system's good for them. Right. Yeah. If we start seeing like 20% inflation per year, eventually that that train's going to leave the station. Did you say you had it at 30% from 25 to 26? Uh no, closer to 40. >> [snorts] >> But when you said the front-loaded the the deal that the rev share deal, that was assuming it was going to work, right? Correct. So, they're trying to >> seeing any I mean, when you hear LSU with a $50 roster, it's like well, what what does that mean? I I think that's kind of what he's alluding to. Like if this is still going to be the wild west and the CSC doesn't have any teeth and they can't do anything, then yeah, I think we do see $10 million quarterbacks and, you know, $5 million edge rushers and, you know, $5 million receivers and I think you will see it continue to go up. It's also like a rebalancing of the spending. You're starting to see this we we we saw the story, I think it was AL.com about the recruiting budgets going down. Like you don't need as much cookie cakes anymore. You don't need as much of that kind of stuff. 8,000 letters in your mailbox, like Yeah. I I think that the next thing we will see there is stories about how facilities projects are no longer continuing to skyrocket nonstop at most schools that that can see this thing coming. Now, you could tell me, "Hey, uh that is more like a capital expenditure. It's not out of the same budget." But I I don't totally agree with that, right? Like you you do have people who who put up some money for these kind of things, too. Um And then eventually, I don't think coaching salaries are going to get cut in half, but you're starting to see this a little bit in college basketball, right? Some of these younger coaches are saying, "Hey, I'm I'm going to take a little bit less. Promise me the NIL money's going to be there and I'll I'll kind of prove myself." Um I don't have great examples of that other than I think I think Miami's coach is like pretty young and and they they spend a lot on players and maybe a little bit less on coach. Well, they're going to pay their coach probably pretty soon. Yeah, and I I would say that that's going to change pretty quickly once Jay Lucas starts if they want to keep Jay Lucas around, then um that that's going to be the case. But the the team, obviously, as you mentioned, very talented and well-funded. There's There's got to be a team like if LSU goes 8 and 4, Oh. that's going to be the one that has the I mean, I'm I'm trying to think cuz Ohio State had the $20 roster, but then they won the national championship. Right. You know, so it was like, "Well, we we we need to have in football some version of the what Kentucky basketball had this year where they had the $22 million roster and then they got bounced before the Sweet 16. Uh there was the uh Bruce Feldman article last week or 2 weeks ago at The Athletic. It was uh he was he was anonymous coaches talking about like the coaching cycle, just like the hires, what they like, blah blah blah. But one of the interesting aspects in there, and again, coaches are as susceptible to the rumor mill as everybody else. But one of the quotes that stood out to me from what he was saying was an was an SEC assistant who said that 40 million is the going rate now. to compete. So, you think of Ohio State with that 20 million roster at least winning they won a national title, 40 million just to go what, five and seven? Seems to be the going rate in the SEC. We'll see how long that lasts, if it's true. I don't I don't think it is, but I would say that uh SEC coaches are not only susceptible to the rumor mill, I would say they power it. I would say that they they throw logs on that fire that is the rumor mill. Also on the rebalancing of a budget, Bud, have you ever seen how much how many thousands of dollars are spent on balloons Mhm. >> in college football? Those little balloon archways? I mean, Also like >> aren't cheap, either. No, they're not. Like you're hired anybody like I almost bought almost my wife and I had one of our biggest arguments when she paid for like a balloon company to put like an arch for my daughter's birthday party. I was like, what are you doing? It was like 700 bucks. I'm like, she would have rather had a gift than the stupid balloons. Like, what are we doing? That's why Danny's on this show is because his daughter needed a balloon arch. >> [laughter] >> I I I picture Danny with we when you see those Instagram reels, it's like, you know, they they they they they pan the party. It's like, look how look how happy my husband is thinking this thing only cost a thousand dollars total. We spent like 1200 [laughter] balloons. But it's like set up for all the official visits, which mean and you've got to think that you've got at least three or four that are massive home games that are include a bunch of official visits. You're doing that almost every home game, a huge balloon arch. Yeah. I mean, Cover 3 balloon company? Think about [laughter] the Think about the prices of hotels. And if you're hosting like Let's say there's like 30 recruits that you really want to impress on a big weekend. You're you're finding some way, either you or your collective or one of your boosters is finding a way to get 60 hotel rooms for them on that weekend. Mhm. >> Right? Multiple nights cuz you're going to want them to come in the day before. They're staying out of the game cuz like you're you're going to put the mom and dad up in a separate hotel room than the kid, typically. I mean, like and then multiply that by like three or four? That's a that's a pretty big expense. Even if they get a decent like rate, you know? Right. You're not getting these for a hundred bucks a night. Like like I mean, Danny, think think about like Tallahassee. Oh. I mean, That was That was a big uh expense. Yeah. Um for my expense report was a big issue for the Miami Florida State game. 100% like it was That's That's getting auto flagged. Yes. One of the one of the one of the uh the comments when I got it pushed back was, "Why was the hotel room $177 on Thursday night and $1200 on Friday and Saturday?" I was and I literally responded. I'm like, "Have you never been to a college football town on a weekend of a rivalry game?" Let me Google that for you. Supply and demand. Yeah. Yes. That's me being the good employee that I am. I got out of town before those prices jacked up. [laughter] I'm a company man. That's right. Brutal. Yeah, that quick hit Friday Friday night, and then before the prices go up, Tom he gets out. All right. Coming up on the other side, we head down to the mailbag room with questions from the big old bag of mail and more. Next. This isn't just combat. It's cinema. Ready or not, here I come. Let's go. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? THE NEW HOME OF UFC, Paramount Plus. Back here on the Cover 3 podcast, diving to the big old bag of mail. This one is from username Sarton Bimmons. Mhm. Mhm. Okay. Hey guys, great show. Question about the situational stats that are often referenced by Bud and Tom. How adjusted are these for both teams and specific in-game factors? For example, is a quote correct decision based on the average team, or are these adjusted weekly for the team offensive and defensive power ratings? What about for run against pass? What about situations where, for example, the book says go for it on fourth down, but the coach knows he just lost his left tackle and his better and his defense has been covering the pass better than expected. It's hard to understand how big a deal a coach not know not following quote the book is without knowing this. So, the Correct me if I'm wrong. I read this not situational stats like split stats. Like decision-making. Yeah, okay. So, um what how the book in-game factors, you know, vibes numbers? How How do you um how do you look at all that and how could you explain it to uh Sarton Bimmons? Yeah, so that they're not just using like the exact same blackjack card that everybody that never played before walks into the casino with. Um they they they pay a pretty penny if they outsource it. If not, they have a you know, analytics data scientist guy in-house in some cases. So, that I would say it is let's say fully adjusted to all potential factors that you think you could factor in week like weekly. Um it's probably fully adjusted to any kind of information you have on your own team that week. It doesn't mean it's perfectly adjusted, right? Um I don't think like obviously your pregame card is not going to account for things that are happening into the game uh as far as injuries and things like that. Clearly like it can be adjusted in game for scenario, and in fact, it contemplates that, right? Like, hey, we're we're up, you know, 14-9, there's 4 minutes left, whatever you want to plug in, right? There's actually a little Somebody's Somebody's got to give you like a slider. Basically, hey, Really? Here's how much time's left. Yeah, but I mean, well, I think they might be allowed to use tablets now. Uh but before that, back when they were not, it was actually like a like a little slider thing. Um as far as like being able to adjust for your left tackle not being available for the series, no. I mean, I think you have to have coaching uh for that. I think that that is like obviously something really worth considering, clearly, especially if you know your backup in practice sucks. Uh but I think there is also some worry about like overfitting something to what you've seen so far in the game. You know, hey, they like we've covered the pass really well. And I I worry a little bit that you overvalue what you've seen through 35 minutes of ball as opposed to like if we're late in the season, like a larger sample set on what the opponent or what you are. You know what I mean? Mhm. Like and just kind of being too in the moment, I guess. So, yeah, I would say it's like fully fitted, but not perfectly fitted. Cuz there is still uh there's still the bot that grades everything. And I'm not talking about the little bug that just tells the little bug on the broadcast that tells you to go every single time. But like I know that there's the decision-making, you know, this is based on this score, based on this time. Like that's robotic. And what you are saying is that that it is obviously with the stakes being this high at big-time college football, there are more custom-fitted models that each of these teams are using. The other thing is like the super extremes of weather. So, that's just hard to model cuz you don't get many games that look like Denver-New England from this past year's playoffs. You know? Um it'd be hard to model like Notre Dame uh NC State that one hurricane year. Right? That That's kind of I mean, within reason, you you kind of figure like just kind of, you know, figure it out. That was like the um the AFC Championship game this year when Sean Payton went for it on fourth down with Stidham, didn't get it. He didn't know there was going to be a blizzard that was going to come in and make it almost impossible to execute anything offensively, or else he should have just taken the three points. He probably should have known there was a blizzard coming. Well, >> [laughter] >> yeah, I mean, every The broadcast knew there was a blizzard coming in. But I still don't think he realized how bad it was going to be potentially. I don't know. That's the excuse I'm giving him for it. How much do those decisions swing? Like and I think it's a pretty good example cuz everybody knows what you're talking about with the card. Uh with the blackjack card, what you're supposed to do. How much percentage-wise does it change the outcome to your favor if you go by what the analytics tell you to do on fourth down or certain situations? It's not a dramatic swing, is it? Three? Like the WPA of a successful decision there? Isn't it normally under five? Yeah. Yeah, unless you just like hit the wrong button on the video game. Like, you know, you know, on first down or something like that. It it's not like it's not a tremendous thing. If you do it in concert with other things, like this is what we would always get on Jimbo about. Like, okay, if you're going to play so slow, you do need to maximize your your possessions. You know, if you're only getting eight a game, like then mistakes kind of magnify. Mhm. Like um Like don't I I feel I feel like uh a pick-six will change a win probability by like 15%, and those are sometimes going to be some of your biggest swings in that Just I'm pulling that off the top of my head, not looking at any of the you know, advanced box scores from last season, but that In my mind that that to me seems to be like what you're dealing with that a a play of super significance is probably somewhere five or under and then the the the big pick six type stuff where it's super negative for one team, super positive for the other team, even that's still going to be a lot of times just like a 15% swing. It also like that that also depends on where it occurred on the field. Time. Right. And and right, there's the successive possession that occurs when the team that threw the pick six gets the ball back. Like it like the one the killer one is like end of half, you know, you're you're you're on you're on the 18, like the the the plus 18, you throw it, they take it back you know, 82 yards for a score and you only have like a minute five left. That that really kind of nukes you because you basically lose the the possession you get after it. Isn't that how Tennessee sort of let it slip away against Alabama? Yes. It was the Alabama Yeah. And Todd go the other way and yeah, sorry, that's all it was. All right, let's keep it in the big old bag of mail then we'll get back to the tailgate. Um, question mailbag question. I think you guys are underestimating Penn State by claiming that they are just Iowa State from last year. For the 2026 team, four out of the five offensive projected starters were on PSC on Penn State last year. Same with three of the top four linebackers and the top three cornerbacks. We also have our best tight end returning {parentheses} better than Reynolds. Penn State also got transfers from Colorado, Utah, and UCLA on the defensive line. It's really more like if you mashed the best returning players from Penn State and Iowa State along with some pieces from the portal. I don't know if that works for a 10 win season, but the real story is a lot more complicated than it's just a middling big 12 team in the big 10. Uh, and then he said at the end, I just realized this wasn't a question. So, uh, I guess the question was or was the question is are we perhaps um, unfairly placing that stigma on Penn State? I'll go hand up. Yes. I I have been, you know, and that's this is I'm excited about this question to be able to go back and make sure that I'm all buttoned up because it's been an easy way for me to sort of sort the big 10 as I'm trying to think about it where you've got a top tier that I feel really confident about. You've got some good programs in the middle and when I'm trying to set my expectations for year one of Matt Campbell, I did kind of have it as the you know, the Cyclones wearing Penn State uniforms. So, I appreciate the accountability. Do you think Do you think we're being outside of me? I'm I'm going to go ahead and jump on this one. Do you think we're being unfair to to Penn State here? No. Okay. I will just say there are if you look I'm looking at it right now. Isn't it 15 or 17 Iowa State players? No, Penn State has one or four. Yeah, Penn State has 38 players in its transfer class from last season and that is the seventh most seventh most seventh most. Oklahoma State, Colorado, Arkansas, UCLA, LSU, and Auburn all had more. What do those teams have in common? Of the 38 24 of them are from Iowa State. And there if you look at the depth chart, a whole lot of those guys are in the ones and twos. I I'm not saying when when I say it, yeah, it's hyperbolic. Not saying there's nobody returning for Penn State's roster last year, but the majority of your roster, the majority of guys you're expecting to contribute were guys who were at Iowa State last year. Doesn't mean you're going to stink. It's just It's like I wouldn't have high I wouldn't have like sit there and think, all right, we're going to win the league right away. It's like, I don't know. It's It's going to be an interesting situation. But, Danny? I I I don't think I I would push back a little bit on the idea that that they kept all of their best players from last year's team. I mean, obviously the running backs. Yeah. Like Also some of them quarterback, your guard, your your backup quarterback who came in like you lost a lot of players from that team. Some NFL bound defensive linemen. >> like you're taking the best players you assume, you don't know this, from Iowa State. I mean, it seems like just said, hey, whoever wants to come, come on with me, but I'm sure there were some players that did not get the opportunity to go. So, I think that's a good thing cuz I think if you had you know, Iowa State's just a a crew of their best players and you could double them, they probably would have been a little bit more competitive. I think the continuity helps. You know, I think Rocco Beck's a good example of this conversation. Like how is he going to excel making a jump up to the big 10 against better teams? And it's a question we have about the entire roster. Would you rather have 24 players from Iowa State or 13 from James Madison? When we went to Indiana, like we didn't rave about that, but then it was like, oh, the culture, you know, they knew it was like, oh, they're winners, chip on the shoulder. Guarantee you these are all chip on the shoulder guys who want to prove to everybody they belong. So, there's there's some good to this, I think, but I think it's cautious. Yeah, and the other aspect like the Indiana thing in year one is A, Indiana lost all the good teams they played. And B nobody saw it coming. It was Indiana. So, it's like by the time like it they started off 4 and 0, 5 and 0, we're all sitting there like, hey, what's up with this Indiana team? They might be pretty decent. And then as the year went on, you started buying in. Nobody's going to look at Penn State as some team They're not going to overlook Penn State on the schedule. It's still Penn State. Great call. Great call there. All right, back to the tailgate, 9:54 a.m. Zachary jumped in and said, do we need to reevaluate some of the SEC defenses based on how poor the offenses were? In Oklahoma's case, I think they only played four offenses that were in the top 50 and we saw Bama and Tennessee. Zach playing a little but who have they played um, when it comes to the SEC defenses or SEC defenses inflated? I think Oklahoma from a personnel perspective you like you can just look at them and be like, okay, that's a those are dudes. Like that's a very good >> on screen again? I just I I want to look at something here. Oklahoma only played four offenses that were top 50 in what? Yeah, I I mean, that this is where you need to be using opponent adjustments, um, I would say Oklahoma 2025 >> Or it's like is it just using scoring? >> regular season or is this including the playoff? I I've got no idea, but like Well, they didn't stay long in the playoff. There are people far smarter than I am who have ways of figuring out how teams perform based on the expectation of how that team performs against everybody else and how much better you do against them versus everybody else. Oklahoma's defense still did pretty well in all of those metrics. Like it wasn't just the schedule that they were playing. They were just a very good defense. So, Michigan was 49th, they're on Oklahoma's schedule. Texas was what? 15th, they're on Oklahoma's schedule. Um Let's see, Auburn like Auburn was 59th, so that doesn't count. Old Miss, I didn't even look it up. They're they're definitely top 50. So, that that's three. Uh LSU? They were pretty bad last year offensively. >> LSU's offense might not be top 50. Yeah, I mean, this this may just be an artfully drawn line on this question. They were 76th. Uh, Tennessee? Tennessee's got to be top 50, right? Well, all right, so Ten- Tennessee Yeah, Ten- Tennessee, uh, so that that that gets us to four and then Bama and Missouri. Um, Missouri with the fall off after the injuries. Missouri is still 47th even with the terrible quarterback play there. And then Bama. So, I I I just think the question's wrong. Like like I have it at six. If I'm going to grant some grace, there is the conversation to be had about how the SEC quarterback play was supposed to be one of the driving narratives of all of college football last season and I would say that they definitely did not meet my expectations and probably underwhelmed every to everybody compared to where we were setting the bar. And so there might be something in terms of they were able to feast on quarterbacks that didn't live up to expectations. Is that fair? Bama had the number one pass defense in the SEC. Fernando Mendoza torched them. Mm. Didn't even have to play the second half. I mean, he was almost perfect. He was 14 of 16 for 193 and like just torched them. And like that was a big I looked that up the other day cuz Orlovsky was making the case for Ty Simpson Really? I hadn't seen that. >> said Fernando Mendoza didn't do much in the playoffs and thankfully McAfee called him out on it. Was like, did you want And then he was kind of like, well, Alabama wasn't very good offensively. I'm like, that's not who Fernando Mendoza's playing against. But didn't he say something about what were the big games he played in? Yes. [laughter] Are you saying he won the national title, Dan? He said, how did he do in those big games? And that's when I was like, hmm, let me see how he did in the Rose Bowl, the biggest >> [laughter] >> granddaddy of them all against Alabama. And he torched them. And he tried to I don't know. Yeah, he's like, oh, he only they only had six points through three quarters against Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game. I'm like, it's Ohio State's defense was phenomenal and he made several big throws come through in the game. Here we go. Let's see. He was he was 14 of 16 against Alabama with three touchdowns, no interceptions. He was 17 of 20 against Oregon with five touchdowns, no interceptions. Oregon. Hell, what are they? That little old school? What are they now? Ohio State, he was he was only 15 and 23, average 10 yards per attempt with a touchdown and an interception. Just I mean, he just he did not show up in the big game. >> [laughter] >> So funny. So funny. He didn't make a big play against Miami in the title game either. No, I mean, he didn't he didn't he didn't sacrifice his body for a touchdown, right? He didn't go John Elway at the goal line or anything. Oh my gosh. I hadn't thought about that play. I'm going to have to go back and watch that. Yeah, just I shout out to Orlovsky. Just man's got some thoughts. All right, let's uh let's get out here with a fun one. Talladega Junkie 1439 said, "I wonder if any of the boys are NASCAR fans. I suspect Chip might, maybe Bud. Why not Tom and Danny? We could all be NASCAR fans. You don't know." How many of you guys have been to the Daytona 500? OH, I'VE NOT. OH, there we go. I didn't know Fornelli, okay. There we go. >> my Yeah, I grew up watching NASCAR. My dad My dad was a racer. I mean, they on weekends, I spent I spent my Saturday nights as a kid at a place in suburban Chicago called Santa Fe Speedway. He him and his buddy Jimmy Part of Pillow, Jimmy was the driver, my dad was his pit chief. They they went around the country driving late model cars and I would go with them a lot of times. We went to Daytona. I was on the infield for it. It was Yeah, I've I've been to plenty races. I grew up racing. Nice. I did not know that. I've thought I I did have about a 3-year run where between Martinsville and Charlotte, I probably went to four races. Um and I was really getting into I guess this would be like '06 to '09 20 2010, something around there. And I enjoyed it. I loved it. It was tons of fun. I have not been into it as much. But seeing Michael Jordan win all these races with 23 11 racing kind of has me want to get get back in. So, I went to the Daytona 500 probably in like 2005. Um I went with Jason Sehorn. He was my buddy from the Giants. And we had like pit passes and everything. We got to meet a lot of the drivers. It was awesome. So, like for that season, I like really followed it. I was like, "Oh, this is cool." And then I never really followed it again. Like I just didn't have the I didn't have the longevity to love it. But as you mentioned, Jordan's racing team has been They're historic run. They're doing things that have never been done before. You want to go see if you want to go tin foil hat on this one? Remember he was in a lawsuit against NASCAR? >> Yes, to start the season, right? Uh-huh. I thought what if the settlement had a little had a little sweetener to it? [laughter] Um and then that's the other thing too. North Carolina is like, "Well, can can MJ cut a check?" It's like, "Buddy, MJ ain't cutting checks for coaches right now. He he is he is loving his fishing and his racing." That is that is a boy from Wilmington, North Carolina who is doing all the things that, you know, he did growing up. So, I don't I don't think he's going to be the power of a new North Carolina basketball coach. Um all right. Tom, good luck to the Illini tonight. Thank you. >> Big game. Yeah. Although it's not us who needs luck. Good luck to Houston. I hope you recover from the absolute beating that the Illini are going to put on you tonight in front of your home crowd. Ooh. Oh. >> If the Visage boys get take it take it back to the old country, I don't know if Joe Joe Tuggler's ready for this. I mean, this Sorry, this ain't the Big 12, boys. This is a real league you're dealing with now. >> [laughter] >> Just throwing this out there cuz I know we have a pretty big audience. I got to get the brand of this fishing pole, but I'll find it. I got one for Huddy. He's four. Like zero knots, zero tangles, like zero snags, nothing. This thing was like but like actually cast pretty well, decent weight to it, like I'll find if if you I don't know how we like communicate to them without giving them free ads, but like we could move some product here cuz like we got a lot of young dads listening to this podcast. This thing was so easy. >> don't want to say it, or you don't know? >> No, I It's in the garage, but I I I I you know, cuz usually like you take the four-year-old fishing. >> We go to North Carolina, I need to find out cuz we go to North Carolina, they're all tangled. All the kids ones are like caught and you can't ever They're never work. So, I'm in I'm in. And then listen, Claire, let's let's let's get together on this one. Let's let's start uh if I would we be breaking ground? I mean, if the the first national college football podcast with a fishing pole sponsorship? We might be. >> Makes sense. I mean, we're like what? 90 upper 90 percentage male. Mhm. We appreciate everybody. You know, like and the door the door is always open. Big 10. Right. I could use a new rod and reel. I mean, I got a pond right across the street. See? >> That's right. Look at that. >> You could go cover the the fishing national championship. >> Hell yeah. Cover three. Fishing's great. You just sit on a boat and drink beer and every once in a while a fish bites. >> [laughter] >> Um all right, so Tom, good luck tonight. Thanks to everybody for jumping in. We will be continuing next week with our if Vegas is right series. We've already done the Big 10. We've already done the SEC. That means we'll be turning our attention to the ACC and the Big 12. Looking at those numbers from the odds makers, taking a look at what that says about the 2026 season. And you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Fornelli. You can follow him at Bud Elliott 3. You can follow him at Danny Kanell. You follow me at Chip_Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Thank you. See you all. See you. Show notes: The Cover 3 crew is back with their Mailbag episode, Breaking down the latest news around college football and answering all your questions. Plus the guys look ahead to Nebraska and Clemson Spring Games. (00:00:00) - Intro (00:01:00) - Tom Golf Update (00:03:00) - Opening Day/Golf Handicaps (00:08:00) - Spring Game Lookahead: Nebraska (00:14:00) - Spring Football Soundbites (00:22:30) - LB to Edge Transition in NFL (00:25:10) - Salary Cap/NIL Numbers (00:34:10) - Analytics Question (00:41:00) - Underestimating Penn State? (00:45:30) - SEC Defenses (00:50:00) - Nascar Cover 3 is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts. youtube.com/cover3 Follow our hosts on Twitter: @Chip_Patterson, @TomFornelli, @DannyKanell, @BudElliott3 For more college football coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices