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Podcast: Cover 3 College Football Episode: If Vegas Is Right: What Win Totals Say About Expectations For These SEC Teams in 2026 Transcript: This is the Cover 3 Tailgate. AND WELCOME BACK to the Cover 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fornelli, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Kanell. I'm Chip Patterson, coming to you live at youtube.com/cover3 and everywhere you get your PODCAST ON DEMAND. THANKS FOR HANGING OUT. SMASH THAT SUBSCRIBE, smash that like, and come and join us in the chat, aka the Cover 3 Tailgate. Where the Renaissance Gamer got in before the show started and he seems to understand the assignment because yes, if you clicked on this episode either on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast, you see that we are continuing our series if Vegas is right. Renaissance Gamer on YouTube says those eight and a half teams, when teams with win totals of eight and a half, LSU, Texas A&M, and Alabama are going to be pissed if those come to pass. Yeah, we've got a fascinating show ahead. Now, as we take a look really not for our picks for these win totals as much as understanding what they say about the teams, what the expectation is for the season ahead, and yes, like uh like our our astute viewer notes, what fans are going to say um if those expectations are right. So, if Vegas is right, uh getting us rocking and rolling here. Uh how's how's everybody doing today? I don't have a lot of I'm not overflowing with news. Did I miss anything? I'm not trying to be funny about that, but >> [laughter] >> T-ball win last night, so that was quality. Okay, that's good. >> Buddy uh Buddy got a hit. Let's go. L- L- Liam has recognized you can go into the GameChanger app and that he's the number one hitter in the league and Hudson is literally dead last. And so he's been reminding his little brother of this delta. Uh and he actually got a hit off a pitched ball and hit it like all the way to third base and then tried to run to third base. Um made it to the first and then had a I I I kid you not, I turned around and saw coach third base. He's crying in the dugout. And then we're changing innings. I'm like, "What happened?" He goes, "Somebody pulled my hair." And I was like, like I'd seen him trying to like fight against him. I'm like, "Was Was the hair pull around when you uh when you were taking your helmet off?" "Yeah." Was it the helmet? So, he pulled his own. Yeah, he we have So, we had a two-inning injury. >> [laughter] >> Listen, it it's like that sometimes. You got to learn your lessons along the way one way or another. Um well, if uh if if y'all are cool with it, I think I think we just go ahead and dive right in. Does that sound good? >> Do it. Um first category that I want to get to, coaches under pressure. Okay? These are um from the idea Now, uh in the uh the comment as we came into the show, LSU, we'll talk about them with some of our first-year hires. Texas A&M's an interesting one. I don't think Mike Elko's under pressure though, right? No. Okay, that's I That was one that was a little bit of a limbo and you know, obviously we can get into that when we talk about uh SEC championship uh odds coming up a little bit later. But let's begin with the Alabama Crimson Tide, a popular topic here on the Cover 3 podcast this week. We talked about their high-profile quarterback battle, but I also seem to sense that all four of us feel like this is one of the better situations among the quarterback battles. What about this number uh what does this tell you about this team uh Tom as you're starting to look at Alabama ahead in 2026? It tells me two things. One, the SEC is more difficult than it has been because there are, you know, more teams in it. You've added Texas and Oklahoma and just the way things are working now with scheduling agreements where they have to play the non-conference game. You know, we you've got another P4 non-conference, which is Florida State again, this time at home. That it's harder to win a lot of games like you would you be used to. But it also tells me as far as Alabama is concerned that it's not Nick Saban's Alabama anymore in the eyes of the sportsbooks or just in reality in that they aren't just going to dominate everybody. And you look at their schedule and you can see why eight and a half is a realistic kind of win total for them. Now, you've got them in the coaches under pressure category. If they go under and they finish eight and four, I do feel like that is a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer. Now, it might matter who they lose to, but I don't feel like you could find many Alabama fans who like would be okay with losing to Georgia, LSU, A&M, Auburn, whoever it is that you end up losing to. So, yeah, it's it's an interesting situation. You're going to have a new quarterback. You are in the third year since replacing Saban. You got to the playoff last year, you won a game, and you got killed in the other. You haven't won the league. You've been kind of embarrassed by Georgia in the SEC championship. You were embarrassed by Indiana in the Rose Bowl. Like I I feel like I want to win a lot of games this year if I'm Kalen DeBoer cuz they might not give him a year four. Yeah, I don't think you can find four acceptable losses. That's what I was going to say. If you're eight and four, like that schedule's not that hard. And you're you're dogs what? Twice? Right. Hosting Georgia and at LSU? You might be dogs at Tennessee. You don't know. Possibly. Yeah, I think it's it's it's possible. Um You know, and if A&M somehow levels up like crazy or something, but like it's very difficult to see them being dogs like at Kentucky, hosting LSU, hosting South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Vandy without Pavia, uh Chattanooga, or hosting Auburn. So, um yeah, I think if you go eight and four, it's uncomfortable because you have made probably in the mind of Bama fans like two pretty unforgivable slip-ups. I think that we saw that a silver bullet win does not exist cuz Kalen DeBoer seemingly had it against Georgia and it did not at all change the conversation. You know, like they collapsed down the stretch. They had the loss against Oklahoma. They fell short of the college football playoff. They come back the next year. They lose in Florida State to the opener. And my oh my, how whatever happiness there was from beating Georgia almost a a little bit less than a year prior one worth anything. That lady was sitting outside that gas station talking about winning the lottery to be able to buy out the athletic director and the head coach. So, I I kind of think that to your point, four acceptable losses and also cuz with some teams, we do think about, you know, but what are the wins? Do they jump up and grab somebody and it's just such an impressive or important win that it can offset maybe an embarrassing loss. This is an Alabama team that as I see it, in the eyes of the fans, cannot take embarrassing losses and needs to split its toughest like its four toughest games probably need to go two and two in that. So, so if your goal is to avoid the slip-ups, >> [snorts] >> do you think that puts a greater chance that Mac is the quarterback because he's a little bit more of a known commodity? Do you think Kalen thinks like that? And I'm not trying to like criticize or >> don't. I I I think Kalen's a really good head coach and if for some reason Bama was to fire him, I think he'd get picked up like that. Because I think I think all the other administrators out there with some sense about him would be like, "All right, Bama's edge is gone, right? Because they're not some like tremendous innovator in the NIL space. I mean, they were behind, which is probably why Nick left. You know, like they they still have a talent edge over most teams, but but not such an egregious one to Tom's point about like the, you know, kind of the tightening of the league. Uh and like I don't think people fear Alabama anymore. And that's not in my opinion really Kalen's fault. I I don't think that Nick Saban would have done a better job in the last two years than than Kalen DeBoer would have done, personally. Given the resources of whatnot and like the fact that he had a lot of good people fleeing his staff and I think those staffs at the end of the Saban era were were not great. Um So, I I don't think he thinks like that. He probably thinks, "Hey, I'm trying to win game 12 and game 13." Which still could be Mac. Sure. Right? You know, we don't we don't I The other thing that's interesting, too, I mean, eight and four, I do agree with Bud, but I mean, we almost saw him run out of town last year. And I mean, it was even, you know, this Michigan job opens, is he like that whole conversation, Penn State his name comes up. I do think he'd be a hot commodity on the open market. And at eight and four, Bama probably would be willing to broker a deal and a buyout and say, "All right, yeah, take him." So, do you think I wonder if a little bit of that was uh orchestrated to send a message to Alabama to be like, "Hey, uh you don't like me? These teams that spend more than you do on players, they like me a whole lot. Mhm. Right? And yet I'm choosing to stay here cuz I believe in what we're trying to build together." Mhm. I I cannot speak for Penn State's leadership. I do remember Penn State fans putting on Auburn gear for that Iron Bowl. Yeah. You know, like >> [laughter] >> I don't I don't know how much Penn State was truly in the hunt and ready to to back it up. Tom, do you can you speak to that one? There were plenty of people who were in power at Penn State who were very much in line with going after Kalen DeBoer. How how mutual the interest ever was, couldn't tell you. Yeah, or how much of that was orchestrated as Bud mentioned to be able to, you know, sort of stir the pot a little bit. Okay, outside of the quarterback, as we look at this team, what are some areas that you are interested in? They can be individual players, they could be a position group, or they could be a little bit general. Um what what are going to be some spots to be able to help Alabama get on the other side of this because there's a very very interesting read that we're like, "Oh my gosh, if it's eight and four, disaster town." You know, what's the What what are the spots that need to happen? Offensive line, run game? Yeah, I think that goes together, but a lot of people were looking at the running backs. I do think the offensive line was just as big as a problem. So, I think that's going to be key. You know, that's been a big conversation around Ty Simpson and his, you know, draft conversation is, "Oh, well, he didn't have a great offensive line, didn't have a a great run game." With a first-year starting quarterback. And I know Ty Simpson was, too, but you're going to want to take some of that pressure off his shoulders. What what I love about that conversation, by the way, Dan, is that people will talk about how Ty Simpson didn't have a great offensive line, and then those same people will be mocking his left tackle in the same first round that they're picking him to get drafted in. Right. He was a weird like season. I mean, he was terrible against FSU. Like he he he was playing in cement. And then for much of the rest of the year, he had like pretty good performances. I don't know what was up in that game, but um It was his first start, wasn't it? No. No, he he started the year before. Yeah. Yeah, the USF game. Mhm. >> Cuz he's an he's an early entry. Right? So, like he he he's a two-year starter. Yeah. Um cuz the whole Iowa thing was what? After his freshman year? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. >> Sorry. You see, there we go. All right, we're on we're sharp here, okay? But I feel like this could go too far down the line. We're talking about two different players here. One is Kadyn Proctor feeding cement, early entry, starter from the moment he showed up at Tuscaloosa. It was for Ty Simpson. It's like the beginning of the Ty Simpson era. >> Yes. Mhm. >> Did he start the South Florida game? Was it him and >> so, and then he got benched, right? Yes, cuz that was the whole like Yeah. Jalen Milroe. Yeah. >> Jalen Milroe, sit on the side and you learn something in the rain, boy. Like >> [laughter] >> Oh, man. Nick Saban walking like wet as a dog through that tunnel. I was like, "I got to I got to retire." Oh. >> [laughter] >> For who? For what? This game was miserable. Um yeah, you're talking about Kadyn Proctor feeding cement, right? And I thought that Ty Simpson, I think we, if I remember, we correctly went back and upon review, we're like, "They weren't bad decisions, they were just off." Am I correct in Yeah, it was like it was like a little like a little late. Yeah, okay. Um the the Ty Simpson NFL >> Buckner started the USF game. The the the chat is correcting us. It was It was Yeah. But they all three played, though, right? Yeah, and it was awful. >> Yeah. Or it was just Simpson that played. It was just those two. Jalen Milroe did not play. But the individuals on Alabama's offensive line, on paper, just even beyond Kadyn Proctor, you would think would have led to more production. Mhm. Yes, they also got a new offensive line coach, so we'll see how that works. >> [snorts] >> Are we feel good about Ty's defense? I do. Yeah, I I I think they'll be pretty solid there, to be honest. Yeah. Talented, I don't I don't feel like monsters, but it doesn't feel like it's a weakness. Yeah, but who who has monsters up and down the D-line anymore? I don't know if they do. I mean No, but like who who else >> [clears throat] >> We almost have to much to Tom's point, but we have to judge in this new reality. You know, I I think like specifically there. Oklahoma? Oklahoma's got some dudes. Um Oregon. Or Oregon? Mhm. Yeah. Not that you can't accumulate them, though. Right. You can't have two or three massive D-tackles anymore. Like 22 21 Georgia stuff is dead. That that's not coming back. You just can't afford to have, you know, a D-line room that that's making 14 million. That's true. Yep. Um okay, any anything else on Alabama before we keep this moving? Nothing? >> Does nine and three get them in? To the playoff? I don't think so. I don't think so. With that schedule? Right. I don't I don't I don't think the schedule's that I think the Florida State weakness hurts them. Yeah. It's not a great win, potentially. If >> it's a win total of four and a half for the Noles. Right. So, I mean, if you beat a four and eight or a five and seven Florida State team, that's not boosting your strength of schedule. Like if you're nine and three, you either lost to the three best teams you played. Right. Which is probably a good argument that you're not playoff caliber. Or I think alternatively, hey, we had a slip-up. Now we're playing much better. We lost to two playoff caliber teams, probably in close games. Who are your resume builders on this, necessarily? Like who have a shot to be ranked? I think LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Georgia. And Georgia. That middle stretch is where you have to get your quality wins. Right. Like I I don't think Vanderbilt has a great shot to be ranked. Um Is that What's South Carolina's total? I I need to actually look at this. It's actually It's actually coming up next, six and a half. Look at that. Right. Okay, so Cuz that's a coach under pressure if I've ever seen one. With probably pretty limited upward mobility. Same thing for Mississippi State. Like I I would I would lay a pretty big price that like Mississippi State and South Carolina are not ranked teams at the end of the year. Correct. Uh and probably the same can be said for Auburn. So, you may lack Like Bama might run into the scenario in which they lack that win in that like kind of 18 to others receiving votes range, you know? As always, the thing about a 12-team playoff is you got to find 12 teams to put it in it. We don't know what the bubble's going to look like, you know? Does nine and three get them in? I think nine and three, as Alabama, likely has them in the conversation. So, um but I would make the playoff, certainly, if I was Kalen DeBoer. More than anything, I would uh make sure that I don't go eight and four. We We also don't know like does the SEC lose the benefit of the doubt now? Right. Three Big Ten champions in a row, SEC in the playoff has not been anything special. Um I don't know. Strength of schedule, though. I know, I know. I just, you know, do you >> to argue strength of schedule with the playoff results, though. I don't know, Bud. I mean, it's the crime, Bud. I mean >> Yeah. No, like I still think that they probably, up and down, on average, have the most challenging schedule. Agreed. >> But I think in that room, I'm curious like how much narrative carries. We know the voice some of these coaches carry. Yep. That's for sure. Well, we will we will judge the selection committee when it's time to judge the selection committee. The standard has been set high by one of the Mount Rushmore of selection committees, the group in 2025. Um South Carolina, we just mentioned it, over/under win total of six and a half. I'm not Correct me if I'm wrong, that's a coach under pressure, correct? Oh, yeah. Okay. Very much so. So, what does this say? Dylan Stewart, by the way, has been a little banged up. That ain't great. I mean, they've already lost one tackle. Yeah, we're losing tackles left and right. >> They've lost two. One they're hoping they'll get back. Like but there's one that they've already said is gone for the year, and that was one of their big transfer gets. Their offensive line was not great last year. Lonnie Sellers has spent so much time running for his life, which, I mean, that's kind of his strength at this point. Defensively, you just mentioned Stewart's banged up. I don't know, man. Like this is You look at the schedule, and you think, "All right, they should get to a bowl, maybe." But I I don't know if South Carolina getting to a bowl will be enough for Shane Beamer at this point because I felt like you know, they were very close to the playoff two years ago. Last year, they took a tremendous step backward. And you could kind of feel like there's a reason he's on the hot seat. You felt like there were people that were ready to move on last year. So, unless they take another kind of big step forward again, I don't know what they can really do to save it. And I don't know that it's fair. I I do think that sometimes, you know, that that nine and three season where they were on the precipice of an at-large could kind of, you know, lead to unrealistic expectations. Or that was the one. Yeah, that might have been the year. That was supposed to be your peak season, and you were like one win away from being able to cash it in, which, to me, fair or not for South Carolina, is a playoff appearance in this modern era. I mean, the this is 15 months ago, another one of these unnecessary extension raise, let's raise the buyout pieces. You you're your buyout's sitting at what? 29 after this year? You say 29? Yeah, it's Sorry. No, 27.9, excuse me. That's not Yeah. >> [laughter] >> wasn't a huge That's a one Oh, look at the Look at these rich guys. 1.1 million is nothing to Chip and Danny. [laughter] It's uh But I so I've been I've been sitting here, no reason, but like Nate Oats's buyout drops from 18 to 10 million dollars. [laughter] And you're telling me Shane Beamer is almost three X the Nate Oats buyout? That is the difference. I do notice that North Carolina fires Hubert, and suddenly chips back to wearing North Carolina gear. >> [laughter] >> No, that hey, this is standing this is standing A in solidarity. It's a tough day for the Carolina family. There's nothing there's nothing joyous >> [laughter] >> about the of of Hubert Davis. I think the win total for South Carolina tells you we finally got some realistic expectations. Like last year they were I mean Lenore Sellers was going to be a top 10 pick. It was like, "Oh, the future is there." Um I they still did they had Texas A&M beat, collapsed there. That doesn't help. Uh especially when Shane Beamer's mocking the fans as he's going in the tunnel and then you blow the lead. They played Alabama tough for a couple years in a row. Like I think they might think they could over exceed, but I think that's probably where they should be perceived. You know, seven wins is is solid. I think it's depends on who you beat. Can they get one of those signature wins? Can they beat one of the teams that are eight or nine wins above them? Um that's probably the question is is can you get one of those big dogs that you know, or you can be can you beat Clemson at the end of the year? You you look at that schedule and it's like yeah, A&M >> win is Clemson, you're probably safe. Mhm. But like they have a very manageable home slate. All things considered. Like they should win if you're anything like you think you're trying to be, you have to win those first five home games. And then once you get to A&M and Georgia, you see what you can do. Well, we'll know if he's fired before Halloween. That probably yes. Cuz like it to me it comes down to Mississippi State, Kentucky, you know, like you you you need to win those two home games. And what does it look like versus Bama and Georgia? You know, if they're close, you know, I think that helps, you know. I mean if you're the AD at South Caro- it's South Carolina. And I know the brand stuff matters less than ever. We we we we we know that in Tallahassee all too well, but it's not like you're spending like like like those big boys either. So, like if you lose by a hundred to Bama and Georgia, cool. You know what? I'll spend a hundred like that that that same track record for a hundred years. Like that to me that should not factor in your decision. It's like are you in year what? Five of Beamer? Are you ahead of these upstarts that just had to fire their coach and make and make a change, you know, either immediately or recently? They did just fire their baseball coach. Maybe the AD's just in a groove right now. Maybe he's like in a trigger pulling kind of guy. Maybe he's safe cuz they're going to have to worry about pumping money into the baseball program. Also possible. You know, we we do have some like Arkansas protocols over there in Columbia. You know, we got we got to we got to make sure diamond eats too. So, um There also is a pretty good bit of uncertainty for some of the programs they play on the back half of this schedule that have win totals higher than the Gamecocks. But like it's not crazy to think that that you know, one of those teams could even miss a bowl, right? Like a couple things go wrong. Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma, A&M, it's not that hard to spiral and be a lot worse than we think. That's uh to get down to fall down to where I'm imagining this. All right, last piece here on the Gamecocks. What are the expectations for Lenore Sellers? Kevin O'Connell's offense um they got what's his name in there running the offensive line now who who's long time O'Connell's guy. It's a pretty quick and easy offense to learn. We've seen that multiple times. Like it's not something that takes two years to master. It can mask some offensive line problems. Um Yeah, I I think he'll probably put up pretty good numbers in it. It's it's going to be runner shots. Yeah. And I think that kind of plays to his strengths, honestly. Shots down the field or take off running. Totally, actually. Um Last one here for coach under pressure and I again, this is another one where I'd I'd like to just sort of test it with the group. Jeff Lebby at Mississippi State, our win total is four and a half. That seems fair, but is it fair to Jeff Lebby? What's uh if you were advising Mississippi State's athletic department, what needs to happen? Is it is it hot is that a fair hot seat analysis? I mean, I don't know that Lebby specifically should get a ton of leeway, but I think at a job like Mississippi State, you probably should just if you've done some things like let's make an outside the box hire, let's run a system that not everybody else runs, let's try to do things a little bit differently, kind of moneyball it. That kind of thing could take some time. Not like the implementation of the offensive system, but he's also a first time head coach. Maybe the guy's learning on the job. So, I man, I don't know. Like if they go four and eight, I'm sure they're not real happy, but like I don't know that a lot of people are just are like jumping to take that job who you'd actually want to get. Am I the only one who's excited about Kamario Taylor? No, very excited. Okay. Is he still limited for spring? I haven't checked up on that, but my expectation is that he's going to be good for the fall. I don't have any reason to be have a health concern, but keep that Don't don't delete that off your spreadsheet. You know, we'll we'll continue to check up on that, but the skill there and the potential in an up-tempo offense to be a real game breaker and a playmaker. Like that to me when I start to think about All right, so what's the positive? What are you selling me on for Mississippi State? What are you selling me on for Jeff Lebby? It's that Jeff Lebby found a player who he might be able to develop into a really really fun and electric quarterback. Now, how many wins does that translate to? It's a bigger question, but specifically, I'm excited about Kamario Taylor in the Mississippi State offense. I don't know if the win total matters as much as much as it's like they improved from two and ten to five and eight last year, whatever five and seven, whatever their final record was. So, they improved by three wins, but the bigger problem was they went from 0 and 8 in the SEC to 1 and 7. You only won one conference game in your first two years and you lost by an average of 12 points per game. So, you weren't really all that competitive in conference. Like if they finish four and eight under, but they pick up a couple of wins in the SEC or they're just more competitive in SEC games, I think Jeff Lebby is fine. Now, if they're going 0 and 8 in conference again and getting blown out every week, then you might see a change. You know, that game is big as that week two at Minnesota. That's you know, like that's that's one that could sort of set the tone for the season. And if you won that game and you stole South Carolina, then you're playing with house money. Mhm. >> thinking this is going to be a great year. And it still could be a five or six wins could be a great year. Yeah, Mississippi State South Carolina week three is a sneaky hot seat game. Yeah. Big time. Uh I do think Beamer's under more pressure than Lebby though because he's only in year three. Going back to last year though, let's not forget Mississippi State in week two beat Arizona State who was like a top 15 team at the time. Good point. >> the wheels completely fell off once they got to conference play. So, I don't even know if beating Minnesota on the road's going to do that much for you if you go into SEC play and get your skull caved in again. They were up 24 against Texas, too. That's where I think they were just a much better team last year, but does that trans- does that translate to wins this year? Remains to be seen. Um and >> You know one thing we've not men- or sorry, Chip, go ahead. Oh, well for I was going to if you you on Mississippi State, Zach Arnett's return? Is that what you were about to mention? No, I was going to mention that we should have prefaced more I think to start the show the first year of the nine game schedule. Ooh. I'm just so used to everybody else playing the big boy schedule and you know, actually coming out here, but that would hint to why all of the win totals are a little bit lower. Yeah, and not every SEC team would schedule four automatic wins, but but some of them would. You know, pretty you know, pretty Uh and if you're one of those teams that did and now you got to go do this, this is more challenging. You have to play a real team in the non-conference. You also have to play an additional SEC game. Um I will say off the top of my head, you mentioned the Arizona State game. Mississippi State seems to get a good decent power conference home and home on the schedule most years. Yeah. And you know, they and not always you know, they're not trying to go knock on the door of you know, I'm trying to think about what they're not knocking on the door of Ohio State and being like, "Hey guys." But they it's almost they do a good job of sort of scanning a somewhat similar opponent in another conference. Mississippi State you're normally giving us one of those early in the year. What do you make of Zach Arnett's return? I mean, I like the combination if you're going to play that up-tempo on offense, play a style that either gets your defense off the field because he gets a turnover or negative play and forces a punt fast. Uh or a style that you know, hey, like maybe we're going to set the tone early and know we're going to need a whole lot of points today. Remember for those who don't remember, he was the defensive coordinator under Mike Leach. When Mike Leach passed, he was promoted to head coach. Um did not go well, so he was uh he was fired. He's been an analyst for a couple of years. He did not even get one full season uh as Mississippi State's head coach back in 2023. So, he makes his return. There was a reason, you know, why they wanted to trust him with the program. We'll see if he'll be able to help them out along the way. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the first year head coaches, the win totals and what it means for LSU, Ole Miss, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Arkansas, and more. Next. When you need your sports news all the time, >> we've got breaking news to bring to you. CBS Sports HQ hits every highlight from all the sports that matter to you. We're bringing you that breaking news right here on HQ. CBS Sports HQ, streaming free 24/7. Um Joey in the tailgate called it out as we are back here on the Cover 3 podcast. Uh yes, Tom, I am wearing uh this in solidarity for the Carolina family, but uh but but also because it's um it's a sweet new Homefield hoodie and we're excited about um you know, starting to start starting to have some conversations, starting to get things going with that with Homefield apparel. They make great stuff and uh and we'll be sure to have a lot more information for you coming up in the weeks ahead. Um all right, let's keep it going with the first-year hires. We'll start at the top with LSU. Lane Kiffin takes over in Baton Rouge and he's at a 8 and 1/2 as the win total. The expectations, I think that as soon as we he was hired are understood. This is LSU and you are Lane Kiffin. You make this hire for a reason. 7 and 5 ain't acceptable. At in any single season. You go and you spend all this money. Hey, Danny, how much money did Brian Kelly say it was? Close to 50 million. Yeah, and that was on your show, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I'll I'll let you take first word here. I mean I mean I mean I mean and it was a similar cuz we've had the conversation about how do how do you feel if you're Mack Brown and you get shown the door and you were asking for money, but all of a sudden they come in and give it to the next coach. Like you're like I could have done that, you know. I think that's what Brian Kelly was kind of alluding to. He's like, man, I I could have done a lot better with that roster as well. Even though he's given pretty good resources. But man Lane Kiffin better go over this win total. Yeah. >> And like may maybe significantly over it because if they're 8 and 4, they're that honeymoon is over in a hurry. And if they're 9 and 3, the honeymoon might be over in a hurry. Depends on who those losses are two. But the expectations are sky high as we've discussed with that roster. And oh boy, you better win it Old Miss because my goodness, um what that would look like, oh my goodness, would be an absolute disaster. But you know, Lane's his um social media presence is always fun when you're winning. Man, I can imagine his comments if he starts, you know, if it starts off 8 and 4. My goodness, that gets uncomfortable in a hurry. They do play a lot of teams on this schedule that I would project to be worse than they were in 25. Mhm. I mean, I think Clemson worse. Old Miss I don't know if they're way worse, but I don't think they're going to be like better than they were last year just what with what they lost. I think A&M is worse. Kentucky is probably not, but I'm not really sure it matters. Mississippi State again, I think they're at the same level team. They just added an SEC game and and a real non-conference game. So, you know. Um Auburn is probably somewhat better. But I don't know how much better. Bama Like are they better? Are they just kind of maybe they're better, but I don't think they're like worlds better. Maybe they are. Texas is better. Tennessee Is Tennessee a lot better this year than it were last year? No. No. I guess it's theoretically possible, but like it's not clear to me like here on March 25th that they are and then Arkansas um probably a similar level of team, I would think. So, like they I mean, they're going to be favored in a lot of games. A lot of this comes down to like the young guys on defense. Do they step up and really make a difference? And we we talked about Richard Anderson coming off the Under Armour game, how like for a guy that size and clearly he has some bad weight to lose, but his ability to play like that many snaps with that kind of effort and not all of a sudden stand up and get washed cuz cuz your your legs are dead. Mhm. Like I think Richard Anderson's going to play like 30 snaps a game in the SEC from day one. Um and then do the offensive line transfers hit? Oh, also it like is Levi healthy and can he stay healthy? That's another kind of big question mark there. What do y'all think? It's Like we've kind of touched on it. 9 and 3 will be good. 9 and 3 might get you in the playoff. I don't think 9 and 3 is what they're paying for. I I I think that getting to the playoff is really more important than the win total. Like I I think that is that's why you make that move. That's why you spend all that money. That's why you get Brian Kelly out. You go after Lane Kiffin. You cause all that drama. You want to be in the college football playoff. Lane was in the college football playoff and he left for LSU because he feels that you have a better shot to win national titles at LSU than you do at Old Miss. So, you better get into the damn field. Because LSU hasn't been in too long for LSU fans. So, I I I don't think like it's a situation where if he's not there in year one, oh hot seat, but I suggest getting there in year one. Is there a wins per million that we can get going? You know, like I just like I I need I need to be able to uh to to to judge this out, you know, like hey, so this many million dollars and this many wins, can you hit this ratio? Then we can consider it a successful season. Brian Kelly for the record did have a number one transfer portal class last season. Um he also said, "Well, we don't buy players." a couple years ago, which um you know, it didn't always go over great because clearly the appetite in Baton Rouge is we don't care what it costs, we don't care what you got to do to do it. You field a national champion. You know, >> children's hospital's like, you don't, we do. Um [snorts] I I don't I don't know if there's enough available in the pie to assume they're going to be able to get 10 wins. And I think the expectation is 10 wins. I think 8 and 1/2 is closer to the reality of the situation and because there's been so much talk and buzz about it, there's just going to be like an impulse. Yeah, of course they're going to go over 8 and 1/2. You mentioned about those teams not being better. A lot of those teams, I'm not positive they're worse. Right. Fair. I mean, if you could know one stat right now about LSU to predict their season, I think it would be the number of games Sam Leavitt starts. Ooh. Like if you tell me he starts 12 games, I I I think LSU is going 9 and 3 or better. You don't think Longstreet would be able to step in and have some of the same success that Chamblee's did? Obviously wildly different experience. No. Not not not not to that same level. I mean, I guess it's possible, but I don't think so. I'm just thinking about like Lane pulling his back up off the bench, throwing him in there and then being able to take off and hit the ground running. That's fair. It's a it's a pretty QB-friendly system, obviously. Mhm. Yeah. Um What about what what what I like that question. What stat would you want to know if you could predict right now? How many points are they scoring? >> [laughter] >> Cuz cuz video game, I mean, what what if they're out there scoring 38, 39 points per game? Then they'll be 9 and 3. At least. Yeah. Wow. Um yeah, that will be What do you and last question here. We we will do this a lot deeper when we do the win total picks later in uh in in the summer. Do you like that off week before Old Miss? There's no off week before Old Miss. There isn't? >> Louisiana Tech. Ah, okay. There we there we go. We were we were missing one on the graphic. I was like, wait a second. So, hey, don't say I didn't >> Yeah, if uh if if you use a certain website, they only have 11 games on their schedule for some reason. But if you go to FBSchedules.com, they have all 12. Got you. Good to note. Um all right, let's keep it going looking at our first-year coaches. We will go next in order and hello, it's the Old Miss Rebels. Pete Golding has a couple of wins as a head coach thanks to the Rebels playoff run. Um but now he's going to be the the first year as the full-time head coach. Loses a couple of assistants to that LSU team we just discussed. Gains a couple of assistants from that LSU program we just discussed. Trinidad Chamblee's gets the favorable ruling from the courts. But what's what's going to be the What what does 7 and 1/2 tell you about this Old Miss team? Well, it it tells me they had to add a real non-conference game. Right? You know, like it And that the schedule rotated. This is a great nine games and the schedule rotated because for two years they played an eight-game schedule that in my opinion was a favorable SEC draw. So, now you're adding an extra game and rotate rotating on opponents that you have straight up missed for the last two seasons. Old Miss like Old Miss was was was pretty blatantly naked about it, right? They they they were trying to schedule to go 4 and 0 in the non-conference every year. Like they were not trying to challenge themselves and like Kiffin treated some of those games as a joke, right? Uh now they have to play Louisville and to your point, they they got the harder draw. I mean, you get Georgia at Oklahoma at Texas uh LSU at the swamp. I mean, at Vandy, okay, like that's probably not as tough this year as it was with Pavia. Um You get Mississippi State at home, that should be a win. You get Auburn at home again, that should be a win. There's a decent floor, but man, there's not a lot of like road games here where How many of these games that they play away from home? So, Louisville, which is neutral at Florida at Vandy at Texas at Oklahoma, do you feel good about? Not many. Yeah, like even Louisville's not a lock. Right. Yeah, there's only four road games or true road games on there and you don't feel good about any of them. I mean, Vandy's the most winnable Mhm. of the five that are away from home, I guess. Yeah, and I I mean they had a great year last year considering, you know, how far they got, everything that went on off the field, too. Just overcoming those distractions, Chambliss was at one of the best stories of the season even before the Lane Kiffin playoff stuff. I just I I have a hard time, regardless of what the schedule is, just not seeing that team regress back to the mean quite a bit. Cuz they they played well, but they also had a lot of things go their way. So, I mean, you look at the schedule, it's more difficult. I I I expect what's the win total? Is it what? Eight and a half? Mhm. For what? Old Miss? Yeah, or seven and a half is it seven and a Okay. I think eight eight and four is very much possible. I I would probably, right now, I'd lean more towards seven and five as the most likely. I think, just because they they brought back a lot in the offensive line. I think there's a chance the defense doesn't drop off. Chambliss is a really good college quarterback. I You got to have me special. I think I lean over. Um but mainly cuz I feel pretty good about the home games. Mhm. You know, like I I don't think Missouri's taking a step forward. Um But Vanderbilt, Missouri in the middle of LSU, Florida, and Texas on the other side of it. It That's tough. I mean, I I don't know if you've heard, SEC's a meat grinder, man. You know, it's tough. Nine and three in that conference is like 11 and one anywhere else. I mean, the win exchange is crazy. Nine and three in the SEC is like 17 and 0 in the NFL. >> [laughter] >> You think this defense will be um solid? They got some really nice pieces. I mean, it Echols is really good. Um shoot, is it the the kid who's kind of like a hybrid edge rusher they have is is really quick. Um I don't think the secondary is going to be worse than it was an issue at times last year. I think it'll probably improve. So, I Yeah, I I think they're they're a dangerous team. Florida? Or go ahead, Tom. Anything else on Old Miss? Nope. Okay. Florida Gators. John Sumrall era begins with a win total of seven and a half. Um the Gators are potentially favored in 10 games. You know? It's as as first heard and first reported here on the Cover 3 podcast. A huge part of this, you've got to think, is going to be as we mentioned during the quarterback battles, Aaron Philo, Buster Faulkner, them hitting the ground running. Tom, you said that you're you can already feel, here in March, that you're going to be way over your skis on the Gators. How how far? Where where do we push this win total on the in the uh in the Tom numbers? I mean, this number is so bad that we might the sports gambling industry in America might be dead come December because they will be broke from the billions of dollars we've all made betting the over on the Florida Gators here. Um You know, this is I mean, like that schedule, all things considered okay, give me. Like, if I'm an SEC team, that's the schedule I'm asking for most seasons. Like, I'm getting Auburn, Old Miss, okay, but I just talked I think they're coming down. Missouri is never like they're going to be a seven and five-ish kind of team. They're not at You got them at home. You've got South Carolina at home. Yeah. You get Georgia in Jacksonville, but you get Oklahoma at home. You get Vandy at home. Your road slate is Auburn, Texas, and Kentucky. Like Texas going to be very, very tough. You don't feel like going on the road and beating Auburn and Kentucky is awful. You feel like you could beat Florida State considering Florida State seems to be punting on 2026 to begin with. Who knows what condition. That's probably going to be an interim coach. Let's be honest, by the time 11:27 comes around. Like, I feel great about this team. I think that if you don't go over, it's a serious disappointment and, you know, John Sumrall's not on the hot seat, but you're like oh, we might have messed up again. Yeah. Yeah, there goes seven and five with this schedule uh and that much raw talent. I think I think Florida fans have real reason to be be pissed. How many cocktail parties in Atlanta this year? Yeah. So, it's at the Benz. They're renovating >> year it's Tampa, right? Yeah, I think they're renovating the EverBank Stadium, right? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I was going to say So, it's a pseudo road game. It's not a true road game, but it's going to be pretty close to it. I feel like we we have enough games in Atlanta. Let's not make that a problem. >> [laughter] >> Um what did the Danny? I hear you getting a lot of woof. No, I just and I'm I just I've seen this story before, though. We get all hyped up about the Florida Gators and the expectations and how great they're going to be this year, and I am buying into it, too. But my goodness, you better beat Auburn first. Like, before we start chalking those up for W's. It's going to be a game that Florida Gator fans think they should win easily. And that is not going to be easy. Maybe it is. But I just think you've got the start to the season is so critical. Cuz I I could see this team getting hot and becoming trendy and everybody falls in love with them. And maybe they keep that ball rolling and they're sort of one of the stories of the college football season. But what if they what if they drop two and two and they're going into Missouri with a must-win game? You know, that fifth game of the season. Like, I could see either one unfolding. I'd lean towards the bullish side. But I've just seen them not handle the expectations that well before. But I think Sumrall's different. I think he'll have them geared up. I think he'll have them ready. I mean, you you could start three and three and and still I think have a great chance to go over. Oh. Three and three >> cuz the finish the the the final three games are >> Oklahoma in the swamp, I think Florida's favored. at Kentucky Vandy and at Mississippi. Although, if they're three and three, I don't know if they're definitely favored against Oklahoma. That's fair. You know? But it's still a a winnable game, you would think. If if they don't they No, no, no, no, no. They need to be four and two after six games, and five and one is legitimately in the cards. Three and three might still be able to get you going over, but there's no way that you write three and three without at least one really, really disappointing home loss. And this is like coming from the the same fans that were screaming at Billy Napier with like vile boos all throughout the last season and a half. So, yeah, I would >> thing I'll say, and we saw this last year across the SEC. Is we were really banking on two quarterbacks, whoever wins the battle, whether it's Philo or Tramel Jones, who haven't played much. Like, I know Philo's played a little bit, Tramel's played a little bit. But they're still like a great unknown of how these quarterbacks are going to play. That could be something where they underwhelm. If neither of those quarterbacks are good, then it's uh-oh. Like, we're back to square one for Florida. You know, I mean, I'm trying like this is a great day. I mean, it my my baseball team's playing tonight in a game that counts. I'm going golfing as soon as we're done with this show for the first time all year. Let's go. >> Here comes my good friend letting me down. What happened to Gator Danny? Where did he go? >> I might be back. I might be back. If they start off four and 0, five and 0, I'm back. I'm trying to bond with the bros over our Gator love, and here comes Danny pouring cold water on my head trying to make me feel better. The one guy I thought I could rely on. So, um we talked about that Auburn game. That Auburn game is going to be on the plains in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Byron Brown, Alex Golesh. Vegas win total has Auburn Tigers at six and a half. Agreed. Agreed. Very much. I think Auburn fans would say that feels fair. Have you gotten a sense otherwise? No. I think they're I think if they go seven and five, I think they're headed a step in the right direction. You know? We're we're laying a foundation. Cuz I think their expectations are reasonable. Which When was the last time we were ever able to say that about Auburn? They've been beaten down pretty good here recently. But there is you do get like a sense from that fan base where they're just kind of like, no, no, we know where we are right now. You You lose Singleton and Coleman, you're you're going to have some re like readjusting of of expectations. You got dumped. Did you guys see the I hate when this happens. Did you see the video of Byron Brown throwing a ball in practice and everybody's like, ah. It was like sidearm, he kind of flipped it out there. It wasn't I'm like, what did you think he was going to come in and be Like, I I don't know what like the expectation was. You just think you're going to see a Mahomes rubber arm cannon down the field? Like, that's not exactly who he is. No. A large man who runs. Yeah. Right. Like And he can make some >> that he is an upgrade over Jackson Arnold without believing that he is a top two-thirds SEC quarterback. Mhm. Overreacting to the first 15-minute viewing period video is Right. It's all time college football Yeah, let's go. Including what was it? Was it the hype video with DJ U that you called out, Danny, that you're like, they should not have put that on the internet. >> [laughter] >> Correct. Um yeah, I I think six and a half feels really right. Obviously, um I think that's good for You know? Who's going to be able to walk in and try to lay a foundation. He's got a quarterback he can trust. They've got They can kind of start piecing the other pieces piecing the other parts together, at least in terms of building a successful team. Schedule's got some big-time challenges, as it always does for Auburn. But um even under, I don't think is panic button. Un- Un- How about this? Unlike Florida, where I think seven wins is a little bit of oh no. I don't even think six and six is panic. I think you should get to a bowl game. But I think that even six and six is not a smash the panic button. Lawnmower, yeah. >> Lawnmower, yeah. Okay. That's a blower. The Kentucky Wildcats get Will Levis in as their next head coach. Over/under win total of four and a half. That is not in line with Kentucky is going to be the next Indiana. What? >> [laughter] >> Sorry, I had to unmute during the blower, BUT WHAT? REMEMBER THAT? IT WAS LIKE WILL LEVIS, he got a couple couple transfers and then all of a sudden you're like, I'll tell you what, Will Levis, you know, if you're looking >> I do not recall this. Indiana, yeah. This This might be Am I wrong? >> show? No, no, no, no. I would just say that the conversation was a lot of juice. It was a lot of juice behind the the Will Levis outlook. Am I wrong about that? >> suddenly becomes football powerhouse. Yeah. Yeah, that like they were going to be able to I almost felt bad for him. Like it was getting too too much made of. It's like like what's tone things down a little bit or else the poor guy's going to go six and six or five and seven and everybody's going to be like, what happened to the eight or nine wins? There's also like again, the comparison is stupid, but like the other thing that just kind of drives it home is like Curt Cignetti came to Indiana with like decades worth of head a decade worth of a head coaching experience. Will Levis hasn't been a head coach yet. And like a half a roster of players and he's got a cult schedule. >> [laughter] >> If ever there is an argument to bring back the significance of the February signing day, it's articles and arguments like that. >> [laughter] >> Like we we we got we got to feed the content machine, y'all. This is We reap what we sow. We got rid of signing day, moved it up, and now we replace it with Kentucky is the next Indiana. >> [laughter] >> Kentucky can be the next Indiana. I will get I will give them some credit there. It's like Kentucky can be the next Indiana was the discussion. I I Again, I'm going to go back to the pie. If you're going to get a bigger piece, who are you taking it from? And in the SEC right now for a lot of these teams that are looking for a step forward, I don't know who you're taking it from. So, I'm not I don't have Kentucky up to the par of like Kentucky's going to have to play LSU. They're going to have to play Alabama. They're going to have to play Texas A&M, and that's in the first half of the season. Okay, so let's see if it tightens up a little bit. Well, you've got to play Oklahoma. You've got to play Tennessee. You've got to play Florida. I mean, what are we talking about for coin flip games? A Clark Lee Vanderbilt program that's ahead of you, maybe with a better quarterback? You're talking about Missouri, which is clearly ahead of you in the development process. I mean, I can think I can think Will is a good hire, but I am not about to think we're going to have a one-year turnaround um here in 2026. The Okay, so some positives here. They They did go out and spend real money on guys who have like actually played high-level college football in the offensive line. So, I I I think there's a pretty [snorts] decent hit rate on the on that type of player they went and got. You know, we we know there were other programs, you know, who who wanted some of the quarterbacks they went out and got like like Kenny McIntosh. So, like they did spend some money. Is that enough when you're facing all these other teams that already spend money and have already been spending money? Probably not, but there there's some positives here. And and like just cuz is a first-year coach doesn't mean he's going to suck. Probably just means the variance is incredible. Yep. Um okay, one last one for first-year hires, then we'll hit a break. Arkansas, Ryan Silverfield, four and a half. >> [snorts] >> Sweet 16, baby, two years in a row. >> [laughter] >> Baseball's still really good, right? Mhm. Baseball's still really good. Got a little KJ Jefferson, got a little AJ Green. >> Realistic expectations, I mean, that's We've not seen not sarcasm here. We've not seen Silverfield coach in the underdog role. Correct. Right? So, maybe he's better at that. Some people are. That's true. Offensive line coach under Norvell, right? And offensive coordinator? Yeah. Mhm. At Memphis, yeah. Yeah. Um yeah, I Do you Do you have any uh I don't I'm I don't love your your your first FBS game being at Utah. And then you come home to play Georgia. >> yeah. And then you get a nice week off against Tulsa, but Tulsa's doing some stuff like I don't think Tulsa's going to go in in Arkansas and win, but that's a hell of a sandwich spot. I mean, they really ruined Oklahoma State last year. I just And then you go to Texas A&M and host Tennessee? I hope Saturday, September 5th is a beautiful, stunning 73 73° day in Fayetteville so Arkansas fans can come out, watch their team beat North Alabama by 100 and just have something for this football season cuz after that yeah. Back half of the schedule, if I can make the argument, is friendly, right? At Vandy is going to be one of your easier road games in the you can draw in the SEC. You're you're still an underdog there, but like it's not like you're going to play at Georgia. You host Missouri. You're at Auburn, which is a high-variance team lined at six and a half. You host South Carolina, which you know, could be on total quit watch by then. Then you're at Texas and you host LSU. And again, I don't think that they're favored in either of those games clearly, but like given the expectations on both those teams, if one of those teams goes south, it's not crazy to think that like maybe they mail it in. Sure. Like you could finish three and three in your final six. Mhm. I mean, the the problem is I Tom's wishing for this beautiful 70° day. I just think that's a night high of 93 against North Alabama. Yeah. I think I think you're roasting out there. [laughter] I know, that's why I'm praying for a 75° sunny day for them. I know, I know. I appreciate that. Means a lot. Um yeah, look, we're not trying to laugh at Arkansas. Four and a half might even be an ambitious number. You know, the the amount of time it will take for Ryan Silverfield to put in place what it takes for Arkansas to take real steps forward will be more than just this season. So, we'll we'll see. It's It's a tough road to hoe, but we appreciate the positivity, Bud, in terms of potentially getting us a strong finish. Coming up on the other side, let's take a look at the teams at the very top and even more specifically, the championship odds for the Southeastern Conference. All that and more next. This isn't just combat. It's cinema. Ready or not, here I Let's go! ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? THE NEW HOME OF UFC, Paramount Plus. I need to do some research on North Alabama, but North Alabama money line might be a good week one sprinkle. >> [laughter] >> This is called Chip takes the rest of the year off for this segment and and and like recaptures What is that? Like eight minutes a segment, you know, 10 weeks remaining. Like over an hour of reclaimed value. Smart. [laughter] >> [snorts] >> Um all right, let's take a look at the SEC title odds. For those wondering, Texas is at the top of the SEC win total board at nine and a half. Georgia is at the top at nine and a half as well. And when you look at the SEC conference championship odds, they are right there, plus 300 for Texas, plus 390 390 at Georgia. Then we take a step to our next tier, the LSU team we just discussed. Texas A&M sitting there at eight to one, plus 800 right behind LSU, and then Alabama. Then we take another jump down into Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Florida, Tennessee, and Missouri. Bud, when you're looking at these, you can pick a team or go big picture on this one. What's What stands out about the way the teams at the top, the teams that are going to be contending for both a spot in Atlanta, but also an SEC championship? What What do these odds tell you about that race? So, I I'm a little surprised that that the the split between two and three is not larger. Mhm. I I I kind of think Texas and Georgia are a a little bit bigger gap, but again, like we just talked about it. If Levis is healthy, then he could be the best quarterback in the league. I mean, I don't know that he is, but he could be. I think it's like within his range of possible outcomes. A&M, I guess you really can't have them lower given the schedule and and you know, given that they did do a nice job in the portal. Um Like there feels like a lot of compression in these odds. I I'd uh Man, they're uh They're going to do good business on these. High high margin uh for for the books on some of these to to to be kind here uh to the sponsor. Um Texas and Georgia have to play Florida. So, if you really believe in that team, you might have the head-to-head. Oh, we talking about like Florida as a dark horse play at 20 to one? Mhm. Although I would not bet 20 to one. No. That feels very uh nerfed. Are you Are you suggesting that maybe these implied probabilities are not adding up correctly? Possibly. [laughter] It has happened before. And hey, listen, it's a business, you know? Mhm. Yeah, it is it it is a business. Uh Tom, what do you what do you see when you're looking at this board? Obviously, Texas, this is the year, right? You're going all in, you're making your coaching changes, Arch is back, huge portal class. This is uh we are going to write all the wrongs. Arch himself said, "I ain't playing in the I don't want to be playing in the Cheez-It Bowl again." So, um I mean, I don't I don't love any of these, but and this isn't to say these are the teams I think are most capable. I just feel like based on what I'm looking at, the two that I would most want is Texas and LSU. So, Texas at the very top, and then maybe LSU. Is it What is the Georgia hesitation from? Just I don't think the odds are of I just don't think they're the right number. It's not really hesitation, but there are just I I have more question marks about Georgia's offense than I do Texas's. Pretty much is what it comes down to. That's very And I also have I feel like I it I feel kind of safer about LSU's offense than I do Georgia's. DK, what about uh Georgia at 9 and 1/2? Um I mean, I think it's the top. I mean, it's they can't go 10 and 1/2, you know? I mean, their schedule still is pretty tough, but I think they're I I agree with Bud that Texas and Georgia are sort of separated from the field. You feel most confident about. Both have returning quarterbacks, both played really good, both have coaches, defenses you can trust. Like, I think those two are the cream of the crop for the SEC. Bud, what where you at with the dogs? So, I I think the quarterback gives them a high floor, right? Um because he's consistent, and uh you know, all the platitudes, a winner, he is a veteran, like like he's I I don't think he's all of a sudden going to collapse. So, I don't I don't know if there's much more he can do physically, but I think he's somebody that a lot of a lot of teams would like to have. Um schedule's friendly, man. 11 and 1. Very friendly. >> Yeah. Like Calling it now, 11 and 1. 11 and 1. Favored in in 11 or 12, right? Yeah. I mean, could lose at Alabama, could lose to Florida, Oklahoma at home. I don't know, maybe, but gosh, I think I'm going to give the dogs all the rest of them. That's betting a lot on on Mater's thumb being the uh the the the only holdback in his game, I think. If you think he's going in there winning that. I just terms of opponent quality, you know, those those are the first ones that sort of rattle off. So, I'm that >> [clears throat] >> it is juiced at 9 and 1/2 when we pulled it, so you are going to have to pay a price to be able to get that, but I I this one might be find different ways to to attack it. I think that for the I think for Georgia, this is a thing things are shaping up nicely from the schedule perspective, and I just am not even with questions about the offense, I'm just not going to downgrade the whole roster talent. Man, Kirby continues to talk that talk, you know, about culture, and we we like our guys, and you know, he he either becomes the foil for Lane Kiffin, right? And just sort of a a lot of the more trans transient and transactional programs, or he's wrong, and the transient transactional programs are the ones getting all the win wins, and and Georgia's player development doesn't show up on Saturdays like a lot of us think that it will. We'll see. That to me is kind of the the operative question about Georgia. It's easy for me to be excited about this idea that Kirby Smart's doing it in almost an old-school way, but if they lose, Georgia's not going to want him to do it in old-school way anymore. They're going to say, "Go do it Lane did." You know, let's let's let's put together our own $50 million roster. But, I I like I like the team, I like the schedule. I I do think this is a group that is playing in Atlanta, that is playing in the college football playoff. And if I was to take a stab at an alt, I I think it's a team that can go 11 and 1. Yeah, I they're clearly on the short list for the national title. I I think if you look at at some of their inactivity in the portal, I I don't I don't really think that was a lack of funds. I I think that I think that was, "Hey, we we like a lot of what's on our roster. We're we're going to work ahead to you know, to extend those guys and and retain them." Yep. All right, anything else on uh the dogs or the Longhorns? No, Tom's Tom Tom's itching. You can see this. This this this moment right here, Tom Tom's about to jump through StreamYard and >> [laughter] >> like I'm I'm going to hit end stream soon, Chip, if you don't wrap this up. Okay. Uh we will >> literally right over my shoulder. We're ready to go [laughter] over here. We will be back uh Thursday, 11:00 a.m. Eastern time, getting interactive. That means we are taking your listener questions. That means we are diving into the big old bag of mail, some YouTube comments as well. Looking forward to it. Come and join us at youtube.com/cover3. And you can follow him on Twitter at @TomFornelli. You can follow him at @BudElliott3. You can follow him at @DannyKanell. You can follow me at @Chip_Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Thank you. See y'all. Show notes: The Cover 3 crew is back with their "If Vegas is Right" Series, Breaking down each SEC programs win total for the 2026 season. How does Vegas expect the first-year hires to perform? The boys discuss it all. (00:00:00) - Intro (00:01:00) - Tailgate Win Total Question (00:03:00) - If Vegas Is Right: Alabama (00:16:30) - If Vegas Is Right: South Carolina (00:24:00) - If Vegas Is Right: Mississippi State (00:30:20) - If Vegas Is Right: LSU (00:37:50) - If Vegas Is Right: Ole Miss (00:41:55) - If Vegas Is Right: Florida (00:47:00) - If Vegas Is Right: Auburn (00:50:00) - If Vegas Is Right: Kentucky (00:53:20) - If Vegas Is Right: Arkansas (00:57:00) - SEC Title Odds (01:00:00) - If Vegas Is Right: Georgia & Texas Cover 3 is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts. youtube.com/cover3 Follow our hosts on Twitter: @Chip_Patterson, @TomFornelli, @DannyKanell, @BudElliott3 For more college football coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. 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