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Podcast: Big Bets On Campus Episode: College Football Offseason Update | Part 1 Segment: Rutgers podcast segment **Team-Specific Podcast Notes** - **Rutgers under 5.5 wins** — Duck said he has **not spoken about this play elsewhere** and emphasized getting the number before it moves; market noted at **-140** on the under. He said he would **back Boston College no matter what the number is** in the Red Bandana spot. - **Rutgers** is being downgraded because of a **horrific front seven** last year: only **11 sacks** and **6.8 yards per carry allowed**. Duck said the staff overhaul needs time and he does **not** see a bowl path. - **Rutgers:** Duck said the defense was **anti-Greg Schiano** last year and that the program still has a long way to go. He noted the QB battle matters, but the bigger issue is a defense that needs a full rebuild. Transcript excerpt: Which do you think is going to be the bigger loss? Like, in a dream scenario, a combination of French and, you know, some of their backup quarterbacks or gadget plays, at least, you know, to keep up the offensive floor. But I think the bottom could fall out on this defense. All right, let's talk about your next play here on the card, which is another under going to the State University of New Jersey, Rutgers, also sitting at 5.5. It's juiced to minus 140 at the under, you know, shop rounds. Perhaps you can get a slightly better number later in the season if there's any momentum on this team to get back to a bowl game. But your first point here is quarterback play, and this, to me, is a pass if Dylan Lonergan wins this job and is clearly the guy from the beginning of fall camp for Rutgers. Because the Greek rifle was accurate, he didn't turn the ball over very much, but he was a goddamn statue in the pocket. And I want to make this point real quick. Tom Moore, who was Peyton Manning's offensive coordinator for just about a decade in the NFL, one of the best quarterback coaches to ever live, he used to say in the NFL, if you take a sack, your likelihood and percentage chance of scoring on that drive dropped down to about 7%. I don't know if he made that stat up or if it only relates to the NFL. It feels right, but obviously in college, it's not quite the same killer that it is in the NFL because if you have a top 30 offense, you know, in terms of explosiveness, you can make up that yardage. You can be aggressive on fourth down. You're playing in higher scoring games. Like, your special teams aren't quite at the same level as they are in the NFL. All that to be said, Rutgers does not have an explosive offense. They didn't last year. They were 80th in plays of 20 yards or more. It's an offense that's built around Antoine Raymond. So having a quarterback who's got some wiggle, who can move in the pocket on boots, on play action, that's valuable, and that's something that the Greek rifle did not bring to the table. And Lonergan, I think, before he hurt his thumb at BC, I liked some of the stuff he put on tape. You've got to keep in mind, Nick Saban recruited this guy to Alabama. He doesn't recruit low-ceiling quarterbacks. So physically, he has the traits. He flashed enough for me. So this is why you listen to the pod. You're getting the breaking info. I didn't want this one to move on us, so I wanted to give everybody an opportunity to get the best number here. Rutgers' defense was horrific last season, far and away the worst front seven when you look at the numbers, when you aggregate out the numbers. This defense only registered 11 sacks all season, and they surrendered 6.8 yards per carry on the ground all year. Just really bad non-competitive front. The entire defensive unit was just so anti-Greg Sciano. There was no attitude. There was no tenacity. It was just really bad Big Ten front. And, you know, he recognized that and had to really pull the switches and the levers and really overhaul the defensive staff. And I think it's going to take some time for that to come to fruition and play out. So I think that we'll see that pay dividends next year. But coming into 2026, I think it's really, they have such a long way to go defensively, and they lose all the players that did play last year. And I just don't know that the talent got upgraded very significantly in I have Rutgers as a small favorite, and I have them favored by 1.2 points. I will be backing Boston College no matter what the number is on that night. It's just a situational spot where you've got a tough draw here against a Boston College team that will be exceedingly motivated in this spot. They generally play very, very well during Red Bandana week. Now that flips a win to a loss. Now you're only favored in two or three other games, and you're going to have to pull two or three upsets as being greater than seven-point underdogs. And, you know, I look at Northwestern opening up a new stadium. They've got Chip Kelly coming in at offensive coordinator. There's a lot of buzz around what that offense is doing. There's going to be much more unique and dynamic schemes to Northwestern's offense than we've seen in the past. Wisconsin has an exquisite quarterback talent that's coming in. Their offense is going to be miles ahead of what they were last season. Maryland is going to—they're playing Maryland at the wrong time, frankly, because they're still getting Maryland in the first half of the season where the Terps will be 4-2 or 5-1 before the bottom falls out. Are they going to Penn State and winning? Are they beating Michigan at home? Are they beating USC at home? I just don't know that I see enough winnable situations here for a team that I have being touchdown-or-greater underdogs six or seven times. I think the defense is just—there's too much inferior talent there. I don't think the scheme is going to be something that will be up to speed right away. And you just—it's a tougher schedule when you dive into it than on the surface. So I don't have Rutgers as a team that makes a bowl this year, and frankly, it's just another year of struggles that just got away, in my opinion. So I like under 5.5 a lot. I don't see this team getting to 6-6. All right, let's tee up my first one here. I'm going to go Houston over 8.5 wins at plus money, plus 130. I also wrote it up on the Action app. For them to get to 10 wins, you get just north of 3-1 on your money. Let's just start with the headline here, and Willie Fritz, we trust. He's a big winner every single place he's gone to. Two natties at Blinn Community College, the same college that Cam Newton won his national championship.