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Podcast: Cover 3 College Football Episode: If Vegas Is Right: What Win Totals Say About Expectations For These SEC Teams in 2026 Segment: Florida podcast segment **Actionable Picks / Plays Mentioned** - There's a decent floor, but man, there's not a lot of like road games here where How many of these games that they play away from home? - I I I expect what's the win total? - I I would probably, right now, I'd lean more towards seven and five as the most likely. - John Sumrall era begins with a win total of seven and a half. **Top Team-Specific Takeaways** - I just I I have a hard time, regardless of what the schedule is, just not seeing that team regress back to the mean quite a bit. - I mean, you look at the schedule, it's more difficult. - I think, just because they they brought back a lot in the offensive line. - I think there's a chance the defense doesn't drop off. - Chambliss is a really good college quarterback. - >> [laughter] >> You think this defense will be um solid? - Um I don't think the secondary is going to be worse than it was an issue at times last year. - A huge part of this, you've got to think, is going to be as we mentioned during the quarterback battles, Aaron Philo, Buster Faulkner, them hitting the ground running. **Transcript Context** - Um You get Mississippi State at home, that should be a win. - You get Auburn at home again, that should be a win. - There's a decent floor, but man, there's not a lot of like road games here where How many of these games that they play away from home? Transcript excerpt: Um You get Mississippi State at home, that should be a win. You get Auburn at home again, that should be a win. There's a decent floor, but man, there's not a lot of like road games here where How many of these games that they play away from home? So, Louisville, which is neutral at Florida at Vandy at Texas at Oklahoma, do you feel good about? Yeah, like even Louisville's not a lock. Yeah, there's only four road games or true road games on there and you don't feel good about any of them. I mean, Vandy's the most winnable Mhm. of the five that are away from home, I guess. Yeah, and I I mean they had a great year last year considering, you know, how far they got, everything that went on off the field, too. Just overcoming those distractions, Chambliss was at one of the best stories of the season even before the Lane Kiffin playoff stuff. I just I I have a hard time, regardless of what the schedule is, just not seeing that team regress back to the mean quite a bit. Cuz they they played well, but they also had a lot of things go their way. So, I mean, you look at the schedule, it's more difficult. I I I expect what's the win total? Yeah, or seven and a half is it seven and a Okay. I think eight eight and four is very much possible. I I would probably, right now, I'd lean more towards seven and five as the most likely. I think, just because they they brought back a lot in the offensive line. I think there's a chance the defense doesn't drop off. Chambliss is a really good college quarterback. I You got to have me special. Um but mainly cuz I feel pretty good about the home games. You know, like I I don't think Missouri's taking a step forward. Um But Vanderbilt, Missouri in the middle of LSU, Florida, and Texas on the other side of it. I mean, I I don't know if you've heard, SEC's a meat grinder, man. You know, it's tough. Nine and three in that conference is like 11 and one anywhere else. I mean, the win exchange is crazy. Nine and three in the SEC is like 17 and 0 in the NFL. >> [laughter] >> You think this defense will be um solid? They got some really nice pieces. I mean, it Echols is really good. Um shoot, is it the the kid who's kind of like a hybrid edge rusher they have is is really quick. Um I don't think the secondary is going to be worse than it was an issue at times last year. I think it'll probably improve. So, I Yeah, I I think they're they're a dangerous team. Anything else on Old Miss? John Sumrall era begins with a win total of seven and a half. Um the Gators are potentially favored in 10 games. It's as as first heard and first reported here on the Cover 3 podcast. A huge part of this, you've got to think, is going to be as we mentioned during the quarterback battles, Aaron Philo, Buster Faulkner, them hitting the ground running. Tom, you said that you're you can already feel, here in March, that you're going to be way over your skis on the Gators. Where where do we push this win total on the in the uh in the Tom numbers? I mean, this number is so bad that we might the sports gambling industry in America might be dead come December because they will be broke from the billions of dollars we've all made betting the over on the Florida Gators here. Um You know, this is I mean, like that schedule, all things considered okay, give me. Like, if I'm an SEC team, that's the schedule I'm asking for most seasons. Like, I'm getting Auburn, Old Miss, okay, but I just talked I think they're coming down. Missouri is never like they're going to be a seven and five-ish kind of team. They're not at You got them at home. You've got South Carolina at home. You get Georgia in Jacksonville, but you get Oklahoma at home. You get Vandy at home. Your road slate is Auburn, Texas, and Kentucky. Like Texas going to be very, very tough. You don't feel like going on the road and beating Auburn and Kentucky is awful. You feel like you could beat Florida State considering Florida State seems to be punting on 2026 to begin with. Who knows what condition. That's probably going to be an interim coach. Let's be honest, by the time 11:27 comes around. Like, I feel great about this team. I think that if you don't go over, it's a serious disappointment and, you know, John Sumrall's not on the hot seat, but you're like oh, we might have messed up again. Yeah, there goes seven and five with this schedule uh and that much raw talent. I think I think Florida fans have real reason to be be pissed. How many cocktail parties in Atlanta this year? So, it's at the Benz. They're renovating >> year it's Tampa, right? Yeah, I think they're renovating the EverBank Stadium, right? I was going to say So, it's a pseudo road game. It's not a true road game, but it's going to be pretty close to it. I feel like we we have enough games in Atlanta. Let's not make that a problem. >> [laughter] >> Um what did the Danny? I hear you getting a lot of woof. No, I just and I'm I just I've seen this story before, though. We get all hyped up about the Florida Gators and the expectations and how great they're going to be this year, and I am buying into it, too. But my goodness, you better beat Auburn first. Like, before we start chalking those up for W's. It's going to be a game that Florida Gator fans think they should win easily. And that is not going to be easy. But I just think you've got the start to the season is so critical. Cuz I I could see this team getting hot and becoming trendy and everybody falls in love with them. And maybe they keep that ball rolling and they're sort of one of the stories of the college football season. But what if they what if they drop two and two and they're going into Missouri with a must-win game? You know, that fifth game of the season. Like, I could see either one unfolding. I'd lean towards the bullish side. But I've just seen them not handle the expectations that well before. But I think Sumrall's different. I think he'll have them geared up. I think he'll have them ready. I mean, you you could start