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Podcast: Cover 3 College Football Episode: If Vegas Is Right: What Win Totals Say About Expectations For These SEC Teams in 2026 Segment: Georgia podcast segment **Actionable Picks / Plays Mentioned** - you look at their schedule and you can see why eight and a half is a realistic kind of win total for them. - Now, you've got them in the coaches under pressure category. - If they go under and they finish eight and four, I do feel like that is a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer. - If >> it's a win total of four and a half for the Noles. **Top Team-Specific Takeaways** - You're going to have a new quarterback. - If you're eight and four, like that schedule's not that hard. - That lady was sitting outside that gas station talking about winning the lottery to be able to buy out the athletic director and the head coach. - so if your goal is to avoid the slip-ups, >> [snorts] >> do you think that puts a greater chance that Mac is the quarterback because he's a little bit more of a known commodity? - I I I think Kalen's a really good head coach and if for some reason Bama was to fire him, I think he'd get picked up like that. - I don't I don't I don't think the schedule's that I think the Florida State weakness hurts them. - I mean, if you beat a four and eight or a five and seven Florida State team, that's not boosting your strength of schedule. **Transcript Context** - you look at their schedule and you can see why eight and a half is a realistic kind of win total for them. - Now, you've got them in the coaches under pressure category. - If they go under and they finish eight and four, I do feel like that is a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer. Transcript excerpt: And you look at their schedule and you can see why eight and a half is a realistic kind of win total for them. Now, you've got them in the coaches under pressure category. If they go under and they finish eight and four, I do feel like that is a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer. Now, it might matter who they lose to, but I don't feel like you could find many Alabama fans who like would be okay with losing to Georgia, LSU, A&M, Auburn, whoever it is that you end up losing to. So, yeah, it's it's an interesting situation. You're going to have a new quarterback. You are in the third year since replacing Saban. You got to the playoff last year, you won a game, and you got killed in the other. You haven't won the league. You've been kind of embarrassed by Georgia in the SEC championship. You were embarrassed by Indiana in the Rose Bowl. Like I I feel like I want to win a lot of games this year if I'm Kalen DeBoer cuz they might not give him a year four. Yeah, I don't think you can find four acceptable losses. That's what I was going to say. If you're eight and four, like that schedule's not that hard. And you're you're dogs what? Hosting Georgia and at LSU? You might be dogs at Tennessee. Yeah, I think it's it's it's possible. Um You know, and if A&M somehow levels up like crazy or something, but like it's very difficult to see them being dogs like at Kentucky, hosting LSU, hosting South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Vandy without Pavia, uh Chattanooga, or hosting Auburn. So, um yeah, I think if you go eight and four, it's uncomfortable because you have made probably in the mind of Bama fans like two pretty unforgivable slip-ups. I think that we saw that a silver bullet win does not exist cuz Kalen DeBoer seemingly had it against Georgia and it did not at all change the conversation. You know, like they collapsed down the stretch. They had the loss against Oklahoma. They fell short of the college football playoff. They come back the next year. They lose in Florida State to the opener. And my oh my, how whatever happiness there was from beating Georgia almost a a little bit less than a year prior one worth anything. That lady was sitting outside that gas station talking about winning the lottery to be able to buy out the athletic director and the head coach. So, I I kind of think that to your point, four acceptable losses and also cuz with some teams, we do think about, you know, but what are the wins? Do they jump up and grab somebody and it's just such an impressive or important win that it can offset maybe an embarrassing loss. This is an Alabama team that as I see it, in the eyes of the fans, cannot take embarrassing losses and needs to split its toughest like its four toughest games probably need to go two and two in that. So, so if your goal is to avoid the slip-ups, >> [snorts] >> do you think that puts a greater chance that Mac is the quarterback because he's a little bit more of a known commodity? Do you think Kalen thinks like that? And I'm not trying to like criticize or >> don't. I I I think Kalen's a really good head coach and if for some reason Bama was to fire him, I think he'd get picked up like that. Because I think I think all the other administrators out there with some sense about him would be like, "All right, Bama's edge is gone, right? Oklahoma's got some dudes. Not that you can't accumulate them, though. You can't have two or three massive D-tackles anymore. Like 22 21 Georgia stuff is dead. That that's not coming back. You just can't afford to have, you know, a D-line room that that's making 14 million. Um okay, any anything else on Alabama before we keep this moving? >> Does nine and three get them in? I don't I don't I don't think the schedule's that I think the Florida State weakness hurts them. It's not a great win, potentially. If >> it's a win total of four and a half for the Noles. So, I mean, if you beat a four and eight or a five and seven Florida State team, that's not boosting your strength of schedule. Like if you're nine and three, you either lost to the three best teams you played. Which is probably a good argument that you're not playoff caliber. Or I think alternatively, hey, we had a slip-up. Now we're playing much better. We lost to two playoff caliber teams, probably in close games. Who are your resume builders on this, necessarily? Like who have a shot to be ranked? I think LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Georgia. That middle stretch is where you have to get your quality wins. Like I I don't think Vanderbilt has a great shot to be ranked. Um Is that What's South Carolina's total? I I need to actually look at this. It's actually It's actually coming up next, six and a half. Okay, so Cuz that's a coach under pressure if I've ever seen one. With probably pretty limited upward mobility. Same thing for Mississippi State. Like I I would I would lay a pretty big price that like Mississippi State and South Carolina are not ranked teams at the end of the year. But like they have a very manageable home slate. All things considered. Like they should win if you're anything like you think you're trying to be, you have to win those first five home games. And then once you get to A&M and Georgia, you see what you can do. Well, we'll know if he's fired before Halloween. Cuz like it to me it comes down to Mississippi State, Kentucky, you know, like you you you need to win those two home games. And what does it look like versus Bama and Georgia? You know, if they're close, you know, I think that helps, you know. I mean if you're the AD at South Caro- it's South Carolina. And I know the brand stuff matters less than ever. We we we we we know that in Tallahassee all too well, but it's not like you're spending like like like those big boys either. So, like if you lose by a hundred to Bama and Georgia, cool. I'll spend a hundred like that that that same track record for a hundred years. Like that to me that should not factor in your decision. It's like are you in ye