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Podcast: Cover 3 College Football Episode: If Vegas Is Right: What Win Totals Say About Expectations For These SEC Teams in 2026 Segment: South Carolina podcast segment **Team-Specific Podcast Notes** - Um South Carolina, we just mentioned it, over/under win total of six and a half. - I think the win total for South Carolina tells you we finally got some realistic expectations. **Actionable Picks / Plays Mentioned** - Okay, so Cuz that's a coach under pressure if I've ever seen one. - Um South Carolina, we just mentioned it, over/under win total of six and a half. - I'm not Correct me if I'm wrong, that's a coach under pressure, correct? - I think the win total for South Carolina tells you we finally got some realistic expectations. **Top Team-Specific Takeaways** - Strength of schedule, though. - I just, you know, do you >> to argue strength of schedule with the playoff results, though. - No, like I still think that they probably, up and down, on average, have the most challenging schedule. - but there's one that they've already said is gone for the year, and that was one of their big transfer gets. - Their offensive line was not great last year. - this is You look at the schedule, and you think, "All right, they should get to a bowl, maybe." But I I don't know if South Carolina getting to a bowl will be enough for Shane Beamer at this point because I felt like you know, they were ver - You you look at that schedule and it's like yeah, A&M >> win is Clemson, you're probably safe. **Transcript Context** - I think LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Georgia. - That middle stretch is where you have to get your quality wins. - I I don't think Vanderbilt has a great shot to be ranked. Transcript excerpt: I think LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Georgia. That middle stretch is where you have to get your quality wins. Like I I don't think Vanderbilt has a great shot to be ranked. Um Is that What's South Carolina's total? I I need to actually look at this. It's actually It's actually coming up next, six and a half. Okay, so Cuz that's a coach under pressure if I've ever seen one. With probably pretty limited upward mobility. Same thing for Mississippi State. Like I I would I would lay a pretty big price that like Mississippi State and South Carolina are not ranked teams at the end of the year. Uh and probably the same can be said for Auburn. So, you may lack Like Bama might run into the scenario in which they lack that win in that like kind of 18 to others receiving votes range, you know? As always, the thing about a 12-team playoff is you got to find 12 teams to put it in it. We don't know what the bubble's going to look like, you know? Does nine and three get them in? I think nine and three, as Alabama, likely has them in the conversation. So, um but I would make the playoff, certainly, if I was Kalen DeBoer. More than anything, I would uh make sure that I don't go eight and four. We We also don't know like does the SEC lose the benefit of the doubt now? Three Big Ten champions in a row, SEC in the playoff has not been anything special. Strength of schedule, though. I just, you know, do you >> to argue strength of schedule with the playoff results, though. I mean, it's the crime, Bud. No, like I still think that they probably, up and down, on average, have the most challenging schedule. >> But I think in that room, I'm curious like how much narrative carries. We know the voice some of these coaches carry. Well, we will we will judge the selection committee when it's time to judge the selection committee. The standard has been set high by one of the Mount Rushmore of selection committees, the group in 2025. Um South Carolina, we just mentioned it, over/under win total of six and a half. I'm not Correct me if I'm wrong, that's a coach under pressure, correct? So, what does this say? Dylan Stewart, by the way, has been a little banged up. I mean, they've already lost one tackle. Yeah, we're losing tackles left and right. One they're hoping they'll get back. Like but there's one that they've already said is gone for the year, and that was one of their big transfer gets. Their offensive line was not great last year. Lonnie Sellers has spent so much time running for his life, which, I mean, that's kind of his strength at this point. Defensively, you just mentioned Stewart's banged up. Like this is You look at the schedule, and you think, "All right, they should get to a bowl, maybe." But I I don't know if South Carolina getting to a bowl will be enough for Shane Beamer at this point because I felt like you know, they were very close to the playoff two years ago. Last year, they took a tremendous step backward. And you could kind of feel like there's a reason he's on the hot seat. You felt like there were people that were ready to move on last year. So, unless they take another kind of big step forward again, I don't know what they can really do to save it. And I don't know that it's fair. I I do think that sometimes, you know, that that nine and three season where they were on the precipice of an at-large could kind of, you know, lead to unrealistic expectations. Yeah, that might have been the year. That was supposed to be your peak season, and you were like one win away from being able to cash it in, which, to me, fair or not for South Carolina, is a playoff appearance in this modern era. I mean, the this is 15 months ago, another one of these unnecessary extension raise, let's raise the buyout pieces. You you're your buyout's sitting at what? >> [laughter] >> wasn't a huge That's a one Oh, look at the Look at these rich guys. 1.1 million is nothing to Chip and Danny. [laughter] It's uh But I so I've been I've been sitting here, no reason, but like Nate Oats's buyout drops from 18 to 10 million dollars. [laughter] And you're telling me Shane Beamer is almost three X the Nate Oats buyout? That is the difference. I do notice that North Carolina fires Hubert, and suddenly chips back to wearing North Carolina gear. >> [laughter] >> No, that hey, this is standing this is standing A in solidarity. It's a tough day for the Carolina family. There's nothing there's nothing joyous >> [laughter] >> about the of of Hubert Davis. I think the win total for South Carolina tells you we finally got some realistic expectations. Like last year they were I mean Lenore Sellers was going to be a top 10 pick. It was like, "Oh, the future is there." Um I they still did they had Texas A&M beat, collapsed there. Uh especially when Shane Beamer's mocking the fans as he's going in the tunnel and then you blow the lead. They played Alabama tough for a couple years in a row. Like I think they might think they could over exceed, but I think that's probably where they should be perceived. You know, seven wins is is solid. I think it's depends on who you beat. Can they get one of those signature wins? Can they beat one of the teams that are eight or nine wins above them? Um that's probably the question is is can you get one of those big dogs that you know, or you can be can you beat Clemson at the end of the year? You you look at that schedule and it's like yeah, A&M >> win is Clemson, you're probably safe. But like they have a very manageable home slate. All things considered. Like they should win if you're anything like you think you're trying to be, you have to win those first five home games. And then once you get to A&M and Georgia, you see what you can do. Well, we'll know if he's fired before Halloween. Cuz like it to me it comes down to Mississippi State, Kentucky, you know, like you you you need to win those two home games. And what does it look like versus Bama and Georgia? You know, if they're close, you know, I thin