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GopherHole · upnorthkid

Jun 07
Bruce Feldman's Over/Under Wins Draft: Gophers picked second with 5 1/2
Summary
Pick/market: seems like most books have shifted to 6.5 with over being plus odds.
yeah seems like most books have shifted to 6.5 with over being plus odds. Makes sense that's the spot it sits based on games EIU: 14+ favorite Miss St: ~7pt favorite; we're near even in Massey, we finished about a dozen spots ahead in the Sagarin ratings. We'll be a TD favorite because at home but will swing based on week 1. We should beat the hell out of them with an inexperienced QB coming on the road. We've seen this game before Akron: 14+ favorite 3-0 non conference is going to be favored. That means you have to go 5-4 in the B10 to cash the over. Everything of course will swing, but based on preseason At Wash: 7-9 pt dog. Offseason pundits love Washington and they're a preseason top 20 team Michigan: 10-14 pt dog. Because it's michigan and they're getting a whittingham bump in previews but we're at home is why it isn't 17+ Going to put us at 3-2 going into probably the make or break part of the schedule to books on cashing this bet or not At Purdue: 10-14pt favorite. On the road so skews some but Purdue should be bad Iowa: 3 pt dog. over/under will be like 32 so this spread is going to close but preseason predictions also like iowa 1-1 segment to 4-3 heading to the home stretch but if you hit both, the over 7 feels pretty easy with the last 5 at IU: 14-17pt dog; there will be a little bit of skepticism around IU right away which makes this line lower right now UCLA: 7-9pt favorite. below us in rankings, at home at PSU: 7 pt dog. Think there will be some hesitancy towards saying ISU, I mean PSU will be at their usual level as they look at it. Their own over/under is 8.5 which is quite low NW: 3-6 pt favorite. close to us in Massey rankings, but at home at WI: pickem preseason; WI gets bumped every offseason only to fall apart every year when the actual games are played. expected 2-2 segment with the final game a toss up to books, making us 6-6 to 7-5. The number is skewed to the under as our blowout games in conf are all losses and our favored games are tighter. If this team stays healthy (aka mainly Drake, Anthony Smith, and a decent enough complement in the backfield), this team should smoke the over. We match up really well with Miss St, catch Washington early enough they're still figuring some kinks out with who they lost, and we get some favorable timing with when we catch some favorable scheduling timing (Iowa right after the bye, IU right after a stretch of OSU, Michigan, Wisco at the end of the year when I won't be surprised if Fickell is already fired). Think this team is closer to 8-4 than 6-6.

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Teams: Minnesota

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