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On3 · TaylorTRoom

Sep 08
CFP Odds - Wk 1
Summary
Pick/market: I have a spreadsheet that relates Sagarin Predictor ratings to predicted point spreads, using a three point adjustment for home and away.
I have a spreadsheet that relates Sagarin Predictor ratings to predicted point spreads, using a three point adjustment for home and away. I can then determine expected win totals, and chances of having a given final record (by using a geometric average expectation of wins and binomial statistics). Here it is- Key takeaway: difficult schedules absolutely impact final records. Texas can have the second highest Sagarin and still reasonably expect to go 9-3. 10-2 against this schedule is an overachievement.

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Teams: Texas

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