⚡ CFB Dashboard

Week 1 is in the books, and we've learned...well, not a ton. As is typical, the college football season kicked off with plenty of teams taking it easy against lesser competition. There were certainly fireworks in week 1, even if no one was left in the stadium to see them *cough*Rutgers*cough*, but in terms of bowl projections a wait-to-see approach in the name of the game as any one game could be significant or could just be an aberration. Nevertheless, the bowl projections must go on. As always, I'll take a look around the country to see what the experts have to say, share my own projections, talk about who is up and down in the Big Ten, and highlight the games to watch this weekend. Plus, I preview the three games on Minnesota's schedule that will have the biggest impact on their bowl destination this season. National Expert Gophers Bowl Roundup ESPN (Kyle Bonagura) - Not bowl eligible ESPN (Mark Schlbach) - First Responder Bowl (Dallas, TX) vs. Arizona State CBS Sports - First Responder Bowl vs. Arizona State Athlon - Pinstripe Bowl (New York, NY) vs. Pittsburgh On3 - Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN)  vs. Texas A&M   Unsurprisingly, a blowout week 1 win over an FCS team didn't move the needle much for the Gophers bowl projections, as the only change was CBS shifting Minnesota from the Pinstripe Bowl to the First Responder Bowl, alongside a change of opponent in the Music City Bowl in Brett McMurphy's projection (swapping Texas A&M in for LSU). One way or another, Minnesota's week 2 game against Mississippi State should trigger some movement.   Gopher Gazette's Big Ten Bowl Projections College Football Playoff - Ohio State (first round bye) College Football Playoff - Oregon vs. Boise State College Football Playoff - Indiana vs. USC College Football Playoff - USC @ Indiana Citrus Bowl (Orlando, FL) - Iowa vs. Alabama ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa, FL) - Minnesota vs. Ole Miss Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN) - Michigan vs. Texas A&M Pinstripe Bowl (New York, NY) - Illinois vs. Pittsburgh Duke's Mayo Bowl (Charlotte, NC) - Penn State vs. Georgia Tech Cactus Bowl (Phoenix, AZ) - Nebraska vs. Kansas State First Responder Bowl (Dallas, TX) - Wisconsin vs. Arizona State Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth, TX) - Maryland vs. Army — Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV) - UCLA vs. Missouri Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA) - Washington vs. North Carolina   Key Games for Minnesota in 2026 As Minnesota heads into its first major challenge of the season against Mississippi State, and with little to take away from the week 1 drubbing of Eastern Illinois, I thought it would helpful to highlight the three games on Minnesota's schedule that will be most important for determining the Gophers bowl destination this season. This isn't simply meant to list out the biggest possible wins the Gophers could notch - beating Indiana would undoubtedly work wonders for Minnesota's bowl placement, but that's not a game that's expected to be close and isn't a game that I view as a key pivot point in the season. Rather, I'm looking for games that are closer to coin flips, matchups that I can easily envision going either way. Additionally, different opponents have the opportunity to provide different ingredients to the resume that Minnesota ultimately presents to the Big Ten and bowl organizers as they make their selections, and I'll highlight those potential contributions as I talk about each game. Key Game #1: Week 2 - Mississippi St We don't need to go far to find the first game on the list. This weekend, as the Gophers take on their first regular season SEC opponent in decades,  a great deal will be at stake. For outside observers, it's a potential launching point for national recognition. I'd be surprised if a win is enough to put Minnesota into the top 25, but the conversation would certainly become much more serious. From a resume standpoint, this is an opportunity to show bowl organizers and the Big Ten that Minnesota is capable of handling opponent with styles outside of the classic black and blue Big Ten formula. While the Gophers have acquitted themselves well in the postseason, losses to Cal and North Carolina in the past few seasons have hurt Minnesota's perception as being a quality matchup for tougher bowl opponents. The Big Ten wants to put its best foot forward and see its teams win their bowl matchups, and non-conference losses don't inspire a lot of confidence. Specific to Mississippi State as a marquee non-conference opponent, this is an opportunity for Minnesota to show it can handle SEC opponents. No, Mississippi State is nowhere near the class of its conference, but it still has SEC DNA coursing through its veins. The Big Ten's top three bowl games (Citrus, ReliaQuest, and Music City) all matchup with an SEC foe. Demonstrating that the Gophers are equipped for that challenge could help put the Gophers over the top and into one of those games if there are a few teams being debated. Key Game #2: Week 5 - Michigan While I've listed these games in chronological order, this would be my third and final pick and there were a couple of games that I debated for that final spot. After week 1, though, the Michigan game feels like the right pick. Western Michigan taking Michigan to the ropes (and properly winning the game before replay got involved) showed that this Wolverines team is vulnerable, particularly on offense. That presents a big opportunity for the Gophers to knock off their rival, claim possession of the Little Brown Jug, and land a signature win in the process. Whether or not this Michigan team winds up having a stinker of a year, the Michigan brand is still powerful and having a win over them is still beneficial to a team's resume. But getting a win here might be all the more important if the Wolverines do indeed have a bad season. What does it say about your team if you wind up being the one decent Big Ten team that couldn't handle them? Ultimately, while Bryce Underwood and the offense might be in shambles, the Michigan defense is still formidable. I talked above about the benefits of demonstrating an ability to handle an SEC-style team. In a similar vein, being able to put up points against the Wolverines defense would be a point of proof for Minnesota stacking up favorably against an upper echelon SEC team that might be waiting in one of the Florida bowl games. Key Game #3: Week 8 - Iowa Last but certainly not least on this list is hated rival Iowa. Kirk Ferentz's squad has been a thorn in the side of PJ Fleck throughout his tenure with the Gophers. Iowa benefits from a light schedule this season as a home game against Ohio State is the only truly underdog game on their schedule. Road games against Michigan and Washington are winnable, and  after that the Hawkeyes get to make a run through all the teams formerly part of the Big Ten West division. What does that add up to? Likely, it means Iowa is well positioned for another 8 or 9 win season even as the team has a substantial amount of talent to replace from a season ago. That, more than any component of the rivalry between the two schools, makes this game vital for the Gophers bowl fortunes. A win means an Iowa loss, and that could be the deciding factor between the two schools as they very well could be vying for the same bowl game placements. I'm sure most fans would say bowl considerations would just be the cherry on top of bringing the Floyd of Rosedale back to his honored resting place in the Minnesota trophy cabinet, though.     Big Ten Stock Report Stock Up UCLA - won @ Cal 45-24 - Coming into the season I'd already describe myself as bullish on UCLA, but their performance against Cal was impressive. Gopher fans know all to well the danger of a non-conference road trip to Berkley, but UCLA handled business in the second half and ran away with the game in Bob Chesney's debut. I figured it would take some time for everything to gel for the Bruins, but apparently not. With a relatively light conference schedule, 8 or even 9 wins are not completely out of the question for a team that has been anything but a winner in its early tenure in the Big Ten. Stock Down Michigan - won vs Western Michigan 13-12 - With the benefit of some after-the-fact rules clarifications, we now know definitely that Michigan shouldn't have won their week one game against PJ Fleck's former squad. The win might prove to be vital for the Wolverines, who looked incapable of putting forward an offense that can move the ball. Michigan's schedule is very difficult the rest of the way, and the misbegotten win might prove to be required to gain bowl eligibility.  Nebraska - won  vs Ohio 49-21 - The final margin in this game would indicate this game wasn't close, but you can chalk that up to a 21-0 fourth quarter. Yes, eventually Nebraska took care of business, but they barely looked better than Ohio even into the middle of the third quarter. Similar to Michigan, Nebraska has a difficult Big Ten slate this year that includes all three playoff teams from a year ago alongside some other challenging squads like Iowa and Washington. My confidence is shaken in the Cornhuskers. It'll be a few weeks before we likely learn anything definitive about Matt Rhule's team, but they'll be one to watch as the season progresses. Rutgers - lost vs UMass 37-21 - Rutgers lost to what has been among the worst programs in FBS football for the past several years and it wasn't a close game. I know we're only a week into the season, but I'm ready to call it - Rutgers is the first team eliminated from Big Ten bowl contention in the 2026 college football season.   Games to Watch This Weekend This weekend is all about the Big Ten versus the SEC. Headlining the card is #1 Ohio State @ #4 Texas (6:30 PM on ABC) in a matchup that could well determine who receives the #1 seed in the college football playoffs at the end of the year. Barring a complete blowout, a loss for either team won't do much to dampen their playoff chances. Kicking off the slate of games is #11 Oklahoma visiting now-unranked Michigan (11 AM on FOX). Michigan is going to be desperate for a get right game, but I'm not sure you could pick much worse of an opponent for them to try to find their way on offense. The Sooners should be a playoff contender this season, and a win against a Michigan team that might struggle to even be a .500 team would be a massive blow for the SEC program. Color me surprised the line on this game still hasn't risen past Oklahoma by a touchdown. Finally, the game most readers of this column are most interested in, Minnesota welcomes Mississippi State (2:30 PM on CBS). This game has big stakes for both teams. For Mississippi State, I'd imagine they'll be happy just to get back to proper bowl eligibility, and a win over Minnesota would be a big step in that direction. For PJ Fleck's squad, the Gophers have stumbled in their marquee non-conference matchups over the past few seasons. As I spelled out above, beating the Bulldogs would go a long way towards earning Minnesota a quality bowl bid that Gopher fans have been craving for a while now.