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--- Preview --- # Arizona vs BYU — Field-Zone Breakdown (Week 1 data) *Built from CFBD's new passing-location data (air yards, depth, and field side by attempt).* **⚠️ Two big caveats before reading into this:** 1. **One week of data per team.** Some zone cells below are backed by just 1-2 attempts — those numbers are close to meaningless and are excluded from the "best/toughest zone" calls (which require at least 4 defensive attempts faced in that zone). 2. **Both teams' week-1 opponent was overmatched.** Arizona beat Northern Arizona (FCS), BYU beat Utah Tech — neither game tells you much about how a real Big 12-caliber offense will actually attack these defenses. Treat everything below as "here's the data we have," not "here's how this defense actually performs." ## For Arizona to beat BYU: what Fifita should lean on | Zone | QB Att | QB Share | QB Comp% | QB YPA | Def Att Faced | Def Comp% Allowed | Def YPA Allowed | Def YAC Allowed | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | short left | 11 | 38% | 91% | 11.0 | 11 | 73% | 5.8 | 2.5 | | short middle | 4 | 14% | 25% | 1.5 | 4 | 50% | 5.0 | 5.0 | | short right | 12 | 41% | 75% | 7.8 | 10 | 50% | 5.1 | 4.8 | | deep left | 2 | 7% | 100% | 20.5 | 2 | 0% | 0.0 | - | | deep middle | 0 | 0% | -% | - | 0 | -% | - | - | | deep right | 0 | 0% | -% | - | 1 | 0% | 0.0 | - | **Best matchup so far:** Fifita has gone to **short left** on 38% of his throws (11 attempts, 91% complete, 11.0 yds/att). BYU's defense has allowed **5.8 yds/att** and a **73% completion rate** there so far (on 11 attempts faced) — that's the zone to funnel targets toward, with the above caveats in mind. **Zone to avoid leaning on:** BYU's defense has been stingiest in **short middle**, allowing only 5.0 yds/att there (on 4 attempts faced). If Arizona finds itself relying on that zone, it's playing into BYU's hand rather than exploiting a weakness. --- ## For Arizona to NOT get beat by BYU: where the defense needs to show up | Zone | QB Att | QB Share | QB Comp% | QB YPA | Def Att Faced | Def Comp% Allowed | Def YPA Allowed | Def YAC Allowed | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | short left | 6 | 30% | 67% | 6.8 | 10 | 40% | 1.4 | 2.5 | | short middle | 5 | 25% | 80% | 11.2 | 3 | 67% | 7.0 | 0.0 | | short right | 7 | 35% | 100% | 9.7 | 11 | 91% | 4.9 | 5.3 | | deep left | 1 | 5% | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 50% | 11.3 | 0.0 | | deep middle | 1 | 5% | 100% | 33.0 | 1 | 100% | 37.0 | 15.0 | | deep right | 0 | 0% | -% | - | 1 | 0% | 0.0 | - | **BYU's likely path to success:** Bachmeier has favored **short right** (35% of throws, 100% complete, 9.7 yds/att), and Arizona's defense has allowed **4.9 yds/att** there so far (on 11 attempts faced). If Arizona's defense doesn't tighten up in that specific area, that's where BYU is most likely to move the ball — again, against a much weaker opponent than Arizona. **Where Arizona's defense has already been solid:** short left, allowing just 1.4 yds/att (on 10 attempts faced). If Arizona can force Bachmeier away from his preferred zone and into this one, that favors the defense. --- *Bottom line for discussion: this is one week of data per team against clearly overmatched opponents, and a broader backtest across a full season showed this specific zone-based signal doesn't yet outperform basic team-strength stats (SP+, PPA) for predicting outcomes. Fun to look at and discuss, but don't put real money or real confidence behind it yet — check back after both teams have played a real opponent or two.*