⚡ CFB Dashboard

Home Ask Games Box Score Reviews Predictors Market Report Forums Sources Podcasts Coach Interviews Coverage Health Insiders Off

247Sports · David Lake

Sep 14
Miami heavily favored in ESPN's updated win probability metrics for each game after the week two results
Summary
Pick/market: The Miami Hurricanes rank No.
The Miami Hurricanes rank No. 5 in the ESPN Football Power Index ranking following the week two results of the regular season.  Georgia and Miami changed spots with the Bulldogs leapfrogging to No. 4 overall after a 70-20 win over Western Kentucky in week two. The Hurricanes thrashed FCS opponent FAMU 77-7 on Thursday night.  The top five of the ESPN FPI ranking after week two shakes out as: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 4 Georgia, and No. 5 Miami.  What is the ESPN FPI? Here's the definition… "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily." The FPI ranking is essentially a power ranking that calculates which teams would be the most successful over thousands of simulations. When projecting the 2026 season, the FPI views the Hurricanes as an 11-1 team with a 17.7 percent chance to go undefeated. The FPI gives UM a 79.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, which is the third highest in the country and only trails Texas and Notre Dame.  According to FPI, Miami has a 8.6 percent chance to win the National Championship.  What does the FPI project as the win probabilities for each remaining game on the 2026 regular season? Let's take a look... - 9/18 @ Wake Forest (2-0): 91.7% win probability - 9/26 vs. Central Michigan (1-1): 99.0% win probability - 10/3 @ Clemson (1-1): 90.0% win probability - 10/17 vs. Florida State (1-1): 93.4% win probability - 10/24 vs. Pittsburgh (2-0): 89.1% win probability - 10/31 @ North Carolina (2-0): 89.0% win probability - 11/7 @ Notre Dame (2-0): 34.9% win probability - 11/14 vs. Duke (2-0): 93.5% win probability - 11/21 vs. Virginia Tech (2-0): 90.4% win probability - 11/28 vs. Boston College (1-1): 98.3% win probability LINK: Check out the entire ESPN FPI ranking here. FPI views Miami's remaining strength of schedule as the 46th toughest in the country. UM is a significant favorite (85 percent or greater) in every remaining game except the November match-up against Notre Dame. Notre Dame is the only team on Miami's schedule that ranks inside the top 25 of the ESPN FPI, checking in at No. 3 overall. According to FPI, the Irish rank No. 11 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency through the first two weeks of the season.  Pittsburgh ranks as the next highest opponent on UM's schedule, according to FPI, checking in at No. 29 overall in the country. After an impressive 59-14 win over Miami of Ohio in week one, the Panthers squeaked by UCF in week two, 12-7. The Panthers are a team that is led by the explosive potential of quarterback Mason Heintschel.  Virginia Tech checks in at No. 31 overall in the ESPN FPI rankings as James Franklin lays the foundation of the identity he wants to establish during his first season in Blacksburg. The Hokies beat Old Dominion 44-21 in week two of the season.  In-state rival Florida State ranks No. 37 overall in the country and will take on Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week. Duke is the biggest riser of UM's opponents, checking in at No. 40 in the FPI after a 31-27 win at Illinois in week two.  Miami will travel to Winston Salem, North Carolina this week to take on Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons rank No. 52 overall in the ESPN FPI while coming off a double overtime 38-36 victory over Purdue in week two.

View original →

Teams: Miami

cfb_footballdefenselbmentions_alabamamentions_boston_collegementions_central_michiganmentions_clemsonmentions_dukementions_floridamentions_florida_statementions_georgiamentions_illinoismentions_kentuckymentions_michiganmentions_north_carolinamentions_notre_damementions_ohiomentions_ohio_statementions_old_dominionmentions_pittsburghmentions_purduementions_texasmentions_ucfmentions_virginia_techmentions_wake_forestmentions_western_kentuckyoffensepredictionqbschematics