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Gameday bump and podcast recap this week, including some PFF insights. PENN STATE vs. BUFFALO -- PREGAME BREAKDOWN & UNDER-THE-RADAR MATCHUPS TO WATCH PSU GPT game-day post for the in-game chat thread. Settle in, it's a noon kick. --- WHAT THE PODCASTERS HAVE BEEN SAYING The consensus across BWI, Lions247, Nittany Dispatch, Obligatory, PennLive, and Tengwall's show this week is simple: Penn State should win big, but the game matters for what it reveals heading into Big Ten play next week against Wisconsin. Everyone is talking about the same two things: the run game needs to find itself, and Chance Morrow (Buffalo's WR who has five receiving TDs through two games, tied for the national lead) is the one guy who can make the score a little more interesting. Bob Flounders noted Buffalo lives and dies by the pass, likely falls behind early, and will throw constantly. Jon Sauber predicted 42-3. Greg Pickel went 50-3. BWI's crew landed on 45-3 and 48-3. The range is a blowout with a disagreement about the margin. Score predictions from reporters in two sentences: Penn State by a lot, nobody thinks Buffalo scores more than once. --- THE ROCCO BECHT SITUATION NOBODY IS FULLY APPRECIATING Everyone praises Rocco, but the PFF numbers tell a more dramatic story than the talking heads have conveyed. Through two games, Becht has a 92.0 PFF passing grade -- that is genuinely elite, not just "solid for a guy in a new offense." He has 539 yards on 44 attempts, 7 touchdowns, zero interceptions, a 157.1 passer rating, and an average depth of target of 10.0 yards. His big-time throw rate is 8.7 percent. His pressure-to-sack rate is only 22 percent, meaning he's getting off the ball clean. What nobody is connecting: Becht is operating as well as any QB in college football right now on a per-play basis, and yet the offensive narrative has been dominated by the run game struggles. The run game is real (more on that below) but it's been obscuring how historic Becht's efficiency has been to open the year. If that holds anywhere close to these levels, this offense is going to be a problem for real Big Ten defenses. Koby Howard's PFF receiving grade is 90.4 with a 5.45 yards per route run average -- a number that, at that snap count, puts him among the best receivers in college football. He had 229 receiving yards in two games with a route-running grade of 90.1. Howard has been targeted 11 times and hasn't dropped one. Nobody is talking about this as an elite-level receiving performance; they're just mentioning the Marshall game highlight. --- UNDER-THE-RADAR MATCHUP NO. 1: BUFFALO'S EDGE RUSHER LOGAN GOODWIN vs. PENN STATE'S RIGHT TACKLE This is the one matchup that could briefly make this game uncomfortable. Logan Goodwin has a 91.9 PFF pass-rush grade through two weeks -- that is not a misprint. He has 15 total pressures, 9 hurries, 5 hits, and 1 sack in 109 pass-rush snaps. His pass-rush grade of 91.9 is genuinely one of the best in college football right now at any level. Nobody in the pregame coverage mentioned Goodwin by name in this context. The podcasts noted Becht's pressure rate generally but didn't identify Goodwin as the specific threat. PFF's data shows he is the most dangerous individual matchup Penn State faces today. He lines up as an edge defender almost exclusively on the outside (70 of 109 snaps were classified as outside the tackle). Watch which OT he lines up against and how that side of the pocket holds up. The good news: Becht's pressure-to-sack conversion rate has been low (22 percent), and he processes fast with a 2.6 second average time to throw. But Goodwin's first step is real and this will be the most legitimate individual defensive chess match of the game. --- UNDER-THE-RADAR MATCHUP NO. 2: PENN STATE'S SAFETIES vs. BUFFALO'S SAFETIES BEING TARGETED BY BECHT Landon Tengwall flagged safety play as one of his four under-the-radar improvement areas this week, but nobody has connected this to the specific PFF data on Buffalo's secondary. Buffalo's safety John Keough has a 37.1 PFF coverage grade -- among the worst at the position in the country. He's been targeted 9 times, allowed 7 catches for 104 yards, and has surrendered 3 touchdowns. His QB rating against is 154.4. Ronnell Davis is slightly better but allowed 6 catches for 99 yards and a TD on 8 targets with a 155.7 passer rating against. Taylor Mouser and Becht almost certainly know this. Expect the crossing routes and intermediate targets that Penn State has been hitting to work down the seam against these safeties. If Rappleyea and Brahmer are healthy and get any seam routes, expect big plays over the middle. The tight end room has an 80.0+ PFF run-blocking grade and should have a field day on the edge as well. Koby Howard's ability to work the slot against these safeties in coverage is a massive advantage. --- UNDER-THE-RADAR MATCHUP NO. 3: THE RUNNING BACK ROTATION AND WHAT IT TELLS US ABOUT THE WISCONSIN GAME Every single podcast this week discussed the run game. But they mostly missed the hidden subplot. PFF grades Carson Hansen at 68.7 in rushing through two games -- below average. James Peoples grades at 76.0. Cam Wallace grades at 70.8. None of them are lighting it up on the grade sheet, but Peoples has the best elusive rating (88.9) and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry with 4 avoided tackles on 15 attempts. Jon Sauber's prediction of more even RB distribution is likely correct and the data supports Peoples getting more opportunities. The thing nobody is saying clearly: Buffalo's run defense interior is genuinely below average. Christopher Climes anchors their DT rotation with an 86.2 run defense grade -- the one bright spot -- but the rest of the interior is in the 57-70 range. Rex Stinchcomb grades better at 81.5 in pass rush but is average in run defense. This is the game where the run game should get right. If it doesn't get right against this Buffalo front, that is a legitimate concern for Wisconsin. --- GAME OVERVIEW Penn State is 2-0 with a 45-0 shutout of Marshall and a 27-9 win at Temple. Buffalo lost in the fourth quarter to an FCS opponent in Week 1 and is dealing with QB injuries. Their starting QB Elijah Holmes is reportedly banged up, leaving Jason Wright under center -- an inexperienced signal-caller. The game is at noon at Beaver Stadium. Wisconsin comes to State College next Saturday in the Big Ten opener. This is the final tune-up, and the coaches know it. Expect Penn State starters to come out hot, establish something in the run game, then get backups extended reps in the second half. The Obligatory crew pointed out pre-season that Penn State has historically struggled with dual-threat QBs -- but Wright isn't being mistaken for one. D'Anton Lynn held Marshall's option QB to zero points. A pocket-only Buffalo offense with a banged-up QB against this PSU defense should be target practice. Enjoy the game. We'll be here all afternoon.