side / SMU
64% evidence confidence
SMU's roster edge travels
SMU enters with the cleaner roster and quarterback edge, plus an availability report that keeps Florida State's defensive and receiving pieces in flux. That is enough to prefer the Mustangs on the road.
Counter: Florida State is at home and still has a path to narrow the gap if its probable pieces hold up.
Monitor: Whether the Seminoles stop moving around the availability report before kickoff.
SMU's second availability report keeps cornerback Deuce Gilbert out and defensive backs Ahmaad Moses and Jaden Milliner-Jones questionable for Florida State, with Rhett Lashlee identifying a camp-long hamstring problem behind Milliner-Jones' uncertain status.
SMU linebackers Caden Marshall and Kenneth Goodwin III remain listed out for Monday's Florida State matchup, with no changes to the Mustangs' second availability report.
The column backs SMU -2.5 at Florida State, citing SMU's better roster and depth chart, Kevin Jennings' quarterback edge, and a 2025 top-20 run defense against Florida State's Ousmane Kromah-led run game.
SMU listed linebacker Caden Marshall, corner Deuce Gilbert, running backs EJ Kelly, Christian Rhodes, and Link Rhodes, linebacker Kenneth Goodwin III, and offensive lineman Abel Hoopii as out for the Florida State matchup.
SMU listed defensive backs Ahmaad Moses and Jaden Milliner-Jones plus receiver Daylon Singleton as questionable, with Rhett Lashlee saying Milliner-Jones has struggled with a hamstring throughout camp.
Florida State downgraded key reserve defensive back K.J. Kirkland to doubtful against SMU, while Karson Hobbs, Chuck Kennon and Jordan Crutchfield are out and Quindarrius Jones and Ashlynd Barker are probable.
Florida State wide receiver Tae'Shaun Gelsey was downgraded to doubtful for SMU, and fellow receiver Devin Carter remains listed out.
Florida State starting defensive lineman Darryll Desir was downgraded from probable to questionable for SMU, while defensive lineman Kevin Wynn remains probable.
Florida State's updated availability report for the SMU game had multiple Seminole changes while SMU had no changes.