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Week one preview: Can Boise State pull off the upset against #2 Oregon?
- Boise State enters the Oregon opener as a 24.5-point underdog with a 51.5 total in the highest-ranked opponent matchup and largest underdog spot the Broncos have seen in 25 seasons.
- Oregon's defense is framed as an elite Dan Lanning unit designed to stop inside-zone and RPO-heavy offenses while forcing outside-zone runs and perimeter one-on-one wins.
- Boise State's defense needs its front four and Erik Chinander to pressure Dante Moore, whose prior pressure splits included a 57.5 completion rate with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
- The final prediction expects Oregon to win 38-10 because Boise State's offense may struggle against Oregon's pass rush and Maddux Madsen has documented problems against power-conference opponents.
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Oregon vs Boise State Predictions
- Pick/market: 41-13 Ducks Boise is replacing 4 starting starting DB’s and all of their leading WR’s from last season.
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Podcast: Monday Mailbag: What Oregon needs to show in its season opener & more!
- Iuli is expected to start at guard for Oregon if healthy; if unavailable, Tommy Sophie and Douglas Utu are the likely combination competing for the open interior job.
- Zaire Addison and Jynoris Wilson are the leading right-tackle candidates based on preseason reporting, with the final alignment expected to become clearer Thursday.
- Oregon returns roughly 14 starters and 46 players from last season, giving the staff enough experienced depth to trust alternatives while the offensive line settles.
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Podcast: We're Back! And We Brought Dan Lanning With Us!
- QB Dante Moore enters 2026 with only one full season as a college starter, so his additional experience and decision to return give Oregon valuable continuity at the position.
- Moore's return was framed as a development decision rather than a rush to the NFL; the staff says it has a plan for his progression and will adjust it through the season.
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